Nottingham Forest v Everton: Reds represent Asian Handicap value

• Forest unbeaten in 8 at home

• Everton have won 3 of their last 31 away games

• Asian Handicap angle appeals

• Money back as a free bet on the Exchange

Forest thumped at West Ham

Nottingham Forest's dismal form on the road continued last weekend as a second half capitulation saw the Tricky Trees thumped 4-0 by West Ham. The Reds made the trip to the capital looking to improve a wretched away return, having notched just one win and scored three goals on their travels, but never came close to competing at the London Stadium.

Steve Cooper's charges defended solidly at times in the first half, with Keylor Navas flicking away a Jarrod Bowen corner early on. Felipe breathed a sigh of relief when he deflected Lucas Paqueta's low effort on to the post, while Navas thwarted Said Benrahma on the half hour. But Forest's resistance was broken after the break and the floodgates soon opened.

Cooper was understandably unhappy post-match. He said, "We conceded a goal but then what happened is not acceptable The game was taken away from us, it's our own fault and we have to face it. Conceding goals quickly was happening to us at the start of the season and we made poor decisions again. It was a mentality thing, and we were punished."

Neco Williams returned to the starting XI in place of the injured Serge Aurier, whilst Chris Wood was recalled in attack, with Danilo back among the substitutes. Ryan Yates could be back in the squad following illness but Taiwo Awoniyi and Moussa Niakhate are likely to be absent for at least another week before being available for selection.

Everton suffer back-to-back losses

Sean Dyche believes his Everton side need to start bringing a 'home mentality to away games' after they were thumped 4-0 by Arsenal at The Emirates on Wednesday night. Despite a positive start to proceedings in the capital, two goals in either half condemned the Toffees a second successive defeat following their 2-0 loss to Aston Villa last weekend.

The result leaves the Blues inside the relegation zone having won just once on their travels this term, and Dyche believes his side need to change their mindset for games away from Goodison Park after another disappointing defeat.

Dyche said, "You have to bring the home mentality to away games. It's been there a while [away difficulties], it's not a new thing. There's been too many soft moments in terms of goals conceded. We were doing very well for 40 minutes but you have to keep it tight, work on the counter and find the killer moments. That's the story of the season so far."

Michael Keane made his first start of the Premier League season as he surprisingly stepped in for Conor Coady in midweek. In an otherwise unchanged line-up, Neal Maupay led the line in a 4-5-1 system, although changes could be in the offing ahead of Sunday's crunch six-pointer at the City Ground with Demarai Gray hoping for a recall.

Home prices appeal

Nottingham Forest have lost their last two home games against Everton, as many as they had in their previous 29 against them at the City Ground in all competitions. However, this is the first time the Reds have hosted the Toffees since a 2-0 league defeat in 1998. The Tricky Trees have failed to score in six of their past 11 head-to-head meetings with the Blues.

Nottingham Forest 2.89/5 come into this contest unbeaten in eight City Ground showdowns in the Premier League (W4-D4-L0) - only Man Utd are enjoying a longer unbeaten streak as hosts. Steve Cooper's troops have scored in 11 of their 12 fixtures on the banks of the Trent and have posted W5-D6-L4 when facing sides outside of the breakaway top-seven.

Only three sides have earned fewer away points than Everton 3.002/1 thus far with the Toffees managing just W1-D4-L7 in games as guests. The visitors have failed to even net in seven (58%) of those 12 away outings, whilst scoring multiple goals in only two of their overall 25 tussles. The Blues are also winless in eight against promoted sides (W0-D3-L5).

Reds represent Asian Handicap value

The market isn't anticipating a goal-glut in Sunday's six-pointer with Under 2.5 Goals trading as low as 1.608/13. Both Teams To Score 'No' holds more appeal at 1.845/6 considering the circumstances with a chunky 31/49 (61%) of the duos combined Premier League matches seeing that particular selection pay-out.

But instead, I'm going to invest faith in Nottingham Forest here. The Tricky Trees have proven a very difficult nut to crack at the City Ground and boast plenty of offensive threats with in-form pair Morgan Gibbs-White and Brennan Johnson leading the line. The hosts have suffered only three home league losses and are unbeaten here since September.

Everton have W3-D8-L20 on their travels since the start of last season and with Dominic Calvert-Lewin still absent, the Toffees are short on attacking firepower, making the 1.9110/11 on Nottingham Forest 0 in the Asian Handicap market an appealing prospect. We'll see our stake returned should the match end all-square.

No Lose Single on the Betfair Exchange

This week's Exchange play at Betfair is backing goals to be few and far between the two relegation threatened sides.

Heading into this one, we have correctly predicted all four of our previous Exchange singles in 2023, most recently backing Under 2.5 goals between Spurs and Chelsea last Sunday.

We are looking at the same market again, currently priced at 1.68/13. Remember, even if over 2.5 goals are scored, you will get your money back as a free bet upon settling (up to £10).

So why Under 2.5 goals at the City Ground? Well..

• Only West Ham's league matches (25%) have seen a lower portion of their games have over 2.5 goals than Nottingham Forest (33% - 8/24).
• Just nine of Everton's 25 Premier League games this season have seen over 2.5 goals scored (36%), the fourth lowest percentage in the division.
• Everton (17) are the lowest scorers in the Premier League this season, with no other side playing more than their 25 games ahead of this weekend.
• Nine of Nottingham Forest's 12 Premier League home games this season have seen under 2.5 goals, including each of the last five.
• Four of Everton's five Premier League games under Sean Dyche have seen under 2.5 goals, whilst all five of his matches have seen at least one team fail to score.
• Only Forest (3) have scored fewer away goals in the Premier League this season than Everton (6), averaging 0.5 goals per game.

Head over to the Betfair Exchanage now to back Under 2.5 goals between Forest and Everton, knowing if we fail, your free bet will be credited upon settling which you can use on the Liverpool v Manchester United match the very same day!