North London Derby Betting: Four key factors that will decide the fixture with a twist

Jose points the way to a top four spot

"Granted, four places and seven points still separate them but whereas the tail-end of 2020 had the rivals dealing in extremities now they share a common objective."

Don't think twice about backing a draw this weekend, as Arsenal and Spurs lock horns in north London, says Stephen Tudor, as the sides are closer than at first glance...

Cast your minds back to the first week in December, to the 201st North London Derby.

Arsenal were firmly entrenched in crisis and after losing three home games on the bounce, Mikel Arteta's position was looking increasingly untenable. Gallows humour even suggested the Gunners might be relegated.

Spurs meanwhile potentially had a memorable season to hand, unbeaten since the opening day and setting a searing pace in a title race that back then seemed assessable to all. A 2-0 win over their neighbours on home turf took them to the summit on goal difference and with Harry Kane and Son Heung-min both scoring for fun anything was possible. "We're coming into our prime," the England forward said post-match.

A lot has changed since that chilly afternoon and in fact it could be said the fortunes of both clubs have sort of met in the middle. Granted, four places and seven points still separate them but whereas the tail-end of 2020 had the rivals dealing in extremities now they share a common objective: to attain a precious top four spot.

Defeat for Arsenal, the hosts this Sunday, will surely mean that dream is over which makes this a must-win for the Gunners, over and above the fact that it's a derby. As for Mourinho's men a fourth consecutive victory will put further distance between themselves and a prolonged lapse in form that's led them to this odd staging post. Behind them is the visage of a memorable season, now gone. Ahead of them, cautious optimism.

Bale makes hay while Son doesn't shine

Son's prolificacy was nothing short of phenomenal across the first few months, with the Korean flyer notching 12 in 17 league games as he matched Kane goal for goal.

Since then, however a barren spell has resulted in just a singular strike in 11 but that's okay because entering the fray stage right is Gareth Bale, fit and firing after a long period of readjustment and inconsistent cameos.

The Welsh superstar has scored six from six in all comps and his impressive recent displays are an enormous fillip for Spurs two-fold. Firstly, it hardly hurts to have one of the best players in the world coming into form just in time for the season's run-in. Secondly, there is now another source of goals which takes the pressure off a duo whose combined hit-rate was never going to be sustainable.

Mourinho has put Bale's emergence down to a 'psychological barrier' that has been 'broken'. Because of this Spurs look to be on the mend.

Bale scored twice against Burnley and Crystal Palace. He is 12/1 to bag a further brace here.

Saka and Pepe add to Arsenal's arsenal

Tottenham's doubters have long accused them of being overly reliant on Son and Kane yet Arsenal have also leant too heavily on their strike pairing in the recent past. This term Aubameyang and Lacazette have scored exactly half of the Gunners' league goal-haul and for a good while it seemed like if one or both misfired - as they have for several games at a time - then the opposition keeper might as well reach into his glove bag and check his social media.

That was until Bukayo Saka accelerated his development, grabbing Man of the Match awards pretty much every week and becoming a wide-man of genuine influence while just as crucially Nicolas Pepe has grown in confidence, cutting out the insecure flicks and tricks and adding substance and versatility to his game.

It's not for nothing that Arsenal's transformation, that began with a Boxing Day win over Chelsea and has seen them accumulate 24 points from 39, coincided with this pair finding the net with semi-regularity. Combined Saka and Pepe have scored seven goals in 17 starts.

This is still not a team that looks to its midfielders and defenders to chip in with an auxiliary goal or two. At least now though Arsenal offer a multifaceted threat up front.

Ignore the shorter odds on Aubameyang and Lacazette, despite their decent record in this fixture, and go for Saka to score anytime.

Start as they mean to go on

In so many ways this is a fascinating clash as befits a game of this stature.

Will Harry Kane continue his remarkable scoring streak that presently stands at 11 goals in 13 when these local foes meet? All told it equates to a goal every 111 minutes. All told, Gooners are probably sick to the back teeth of him.

Can Arsenal begin to put right a poor return of just two league wins over Spurs since 2014 and in doing so start to claw themselves into European contention? It matters that they have West Ham and Liverpool coming up next.

Arsenal are presently 40/1 to secure top four this season.

And what of Tottenham's recent goal-gluts? Has Mourinho really taken the handbrake off? Or will he revert to type here?

There are so many questions yet strangely a good many of them might be answered this weekend in the blink of an eye.

In their last eight games Arsenal have picked up an unwelcome habit of conceding early, with four goals arriving inside the opening six minutes. Conversely, Spurs have got their noses in front on six occasions this season inside ten minutes. Having seemingly got over their costly practise of then conceding late-on Mourinho's side will be seeking to gain a quick and decisive advantage in this one.

Spurs are a tempting 23/10 to be leading at the break.

Honours even

That at least will be the visitor's intention. But if Bale's revival is pertinent, as too are the superb performances of late by the Arsenal's youngsters Saka and Emile Smith Rowe - the latter is anticipated to feature after injury - these factors pale to the fixture itself which has long-standing patterns it would be remiss to ignore.

In the Premier League era these sides have come to blows on 57 occasions. An astonishing 40.3% of them have ended in draws.

To put that into proper perspective the Manchester derby has ended honours even 16.6% of the time and it only gets stranger because there is also a rich tradition of comebacks from two-goal deficits while 15% of the contests has seen the side who concedes first go on to win the game.

Whoever strikes first on Sunday - and let's assume on current trends it is Spurs - head straight into the in-play market and either back the draw or the Gunners. The North London Derby is typically one with a sting in its tail.

Stephen Tudor

Stephen Tudor has written extensively about football and sports betting for well over a decade.

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