Tactically speaking, Sir Alex Ferguson got it all wrong against Manchester City last Monday but far from shouldering the blame, he has deflected any criticism by pointing out that United's biggest recent failing was the team's 4-4 draw with Everton, which cost United a comfort zone going into the Manchester derby. Had they started the latter match with a five point lead, which looked nailed on until ten minutes from time against the Toffeemen, then Ferguson's tactics would definitely have been to attack City, rather than the conservative and containing approach he surprisingly adopted against his 'noisy neighbours'.
With an eight point lead just a few weeks ago, the league should have been sewn up by now, but instead United have to dig into their energy reserves and beat Swansea City, who have been nothing short of brilliant in their first Premier League season. A telling stat for United fans is that if Swansea score just once, this season will be the first for 33 years in which United will have conceded 20 goals at Old Trafford. It is small details like this that win and lose leagues and United are teetering on the brink of 'throwing it all away' as Sir Alex has stoically reminded his players in the press this week.
Danny Welbeck looks likely to miss out on this game with the ankle injury picked up against City, but whichever team is selected, some sort of stimulus is needed, as United have looked exhausted since the game against Fulham as far back as 26th March.
Swansea have never beaten United at Old Trafford in eight attempts and not many fancy them to upset The Reds, but if they get so much as a point out of this game, which they are well capable of doing, then surely the title dream is over for the defending champions?
Salient statistics for this week's 'value' bet recommendations:
Manchester United's last 25 Premier League home matches:
· Both teams to score = No: 13 times (52%)
· Under 3.5 Goals: 15 times (60%)
· Total goals last six results (most recent first): 8-4-2-1-2-3
· Under 1.5 Goals at half-time: 15 times (60%)
· Last six half-time total goals (most recent first): 2-2-1-1-1-0
Swansea City's last 25 Premier League away matches:
· Both teams to score = No: 15 times (60%)
· Under 3.5 Goals: 19 times (76%)
· Total goals last six results (most recent first): 2-3-4-3-2-2
· Under 1.5 Goals at half-time: 18 times (72%)
· Last six half-time total goals (most recent first): 2-1-1-1-1-2
Summary:
As there are no recent head-to-head encounters between the two teams at Old Trafford, analysing this match from a statistical perspective is limited to form over just the 2011-2012 season.
United's price is hugely under-valued for this game and they should be at least 1.434/9; it remains to be seen whether the current offer of 1.21/5 for a home win will drop even further should Manchester City fail to beat Newcastle in the earlier game.
There is a bit of value around for the long-term investor but connoisseurs of the statistical approach to betting will need no reminding that each betting round should comprise a portfolio of many bets to ensure diversification and spreading of risk. Soccer Widow recommends at least 25 matches in a 'round', together with a staking plan to minimise losses and maximise winnings.
'Value' Bet Recommendations:
Back "Both teams to score = No" (Odds: 1.875/6; Zero or 'true' odds: 1.79; Value: 4.7%; Probability: 56%)
Back "Under 3.5 Goals" (Odds: 1.8910/11; Zero or 'true' odds: 1.47; Value: 28.5%; Probability: 68%)
Back "Under 1.5 Goals at half-time" (Odds: 1.845/6; Zero or 'true' odds; 1.52; Value: 21.4%; Probability: 66%)