Premier League Big Match Focus: How to back an 8/1 Bet Builder in Man City v Leicester

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Kevin De Bruyne tends to finish seasons strongly

In this week's Big Match Focus, Tom Victor previews Manchester City v Leicester in a big game at both ends of the table...

  • Smith's first game as Leicester boss

  • De Bruyne chasing assist landmark for City

  • Man City making title charge with nine wins in a row


At this late stage of the season, every game is important - particularly for those like Manchester City and Leicester who have everything on the line.

The reigning champions are now narrow favourites to win the title according to Opta's model, safe in the knowledge that victory in every remaining game will assure them of top spot after title rivals Arsenal dropped points last Sunday.

Leicester, meanwhile, sit in the relegation places with eight games remaining but are still just two points from safety.

Leicester opted for a change of manager earlier this month, with Dean Smith installed on an interim basis until the end of the season.

The former Norwich boss lost 4-0 at home to City with the Canaries last season, and also lost all of his games against Guardiola's side when in charge of Aston Villa, though assistant John Terry does at least have experience of beating strong Manchester City sides during his playing days.

Five is the magic number

City are pushing for a fifth straight victory over Leicester in the Premier League, but their last defeat in this fixture was a notable one.

Jamie Vardy scored a hat-trick in a 5-2 victory for the Foxes early in the 2020-21 season, with James Maddison and Youri Tielemans also netting, and all three could feature this weekend.

Guardiola's team are also coming off five league wins on the spin as they ramp up their title charge.

Spurs were the last team to beat them, back in early February, while Nottingham Forest are the only side to deny the reigning champions victory in any of the eight games since.

The visitors won't be delighted by City's midweek win over Bayern Munich in the Champions League. With that European tie close to being done and dusted, Guardiola might not be especially tempted to keep players fresh for the trip to Bavaria.


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A tale of two (or three) strikers

It's impossible to talk about Manchester City this season without talking about Erling Haaland. The Norwegian was on target again in the victory over Bayern, bringing his tally up to 45 in all competitions, while a double against Southampton last weekend took him up to 30 in the league.

If those numbers weren't impressive enough on their own, how about this? Haaland has scored a goal every 73 minutes in the league, while Leicester - with 40 goals across their 30 fixtures - score once every 67.5 minutes as a team.

Vardy and Kelechi Iheanacho will be competing for a start at the Etihad Stadium, as it would take a bold manager to play two strikers from the get-go in this fixture.

Former Man City frontman Iheanacho is aiming to follow Paul Dickov and become just the second ex-City player to score in successive away games against them, with the Scotland striker netting for Leicester in November 2003 and then for Blackburn 12 months later.

Vardy's record against these opponents is not to be sniffed at, with the former England international scoring eight against City in the Guardiola era - more than any other opposition player in the Premier League.

However, he drew a blank in the reverse fixture in October - where Kevin De Bruyne scored the only goal of the game - and has just four goals in all competitions this season as he prepares to become the first ever Leicester player to bring up 300 Premier League appearances.

Manchester City v Leicester City prediction

Guardiola has a stacked squad to choose from during the run-in, but one man who often comes into his own at this stage of the season is De Bruyne.

Four of the playmaker's eight goals this season have come since the start of February, while he scored 12 between February and May last season.

The former Wolfsburg star is also a huge threat when it comes to assists, and his next will be his 100th for City in the Premier League.

Seven of this season's assists have come for Haaland - already a club record for a single season - and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him add to that tally.

A heavy defeat for the visitors might feel damaging, but the strugglers might well see this as a free hit and shouldn't feel too disheartened if they are put to the sword. And that looks like the likeliest outcome with Smith's side given a roughly 50:50 shot at Premier League survival by Opta's model.

City HT/FT, De Bruyne anytime assist, De Bruyne 2+ Shots on target and over 3.5 goals

8.74

We have our eye on the bet builders market for this game, with De Bruyne potentially playing a big part.

More than 3.5 goals, De Bruyne anytime assist, De Bruyne 2+ shots on target and Man City half-time/full-time can be backed at 8.74387/50.

Recommended bets

Man City v Leicester: Man City HT/FT, De Bruyne anytime assist, De Bruyne 2+ shots on target and >3.5 goals @ 8.74

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