Man City v Aston Villa: Hosts to win but without clean sheet

• Man City and BTTS at 3.052/1 appeals given the hosts' modest defensive record this season

• Aston Villa have scored in every game under Unai Emery

• Riyad Mahrez can star in a Bet Builder at 4.77/2

City under a cloud ahead of title reminder

Manchester City will certainly have fond memories of this fixture from last year, the game that secured their fourth Premier League triumph in five seasons.

But for much of this must-win match, it looked as if they were about to hand the title to Liverpool after slipping 2-0 down via Villa goals from Matty Cash (37) and Philippe Coutinho (69).

Then came that explosive five-minute burst when a brace from Ilkay Gundogan and another from Rodri turned the game on its head, the 3-2 triumph crowning City champions again by a single point.

Happy days, something that can't be said of the last few for Pep Guardiola and his men.

First, came the rather limp 1-0 defeat to Spurs when Erling Haaland failed to get a single touch in the Tottenham penalty area. And then the bombshell of a Premier League investigation into financial rule breaking which could end in a points deduction, stripping of titles and even relegation.

City have strongly denied any undoing but could those potential punishments have an adverse impact on performance if City's players minds wander a little?

Some might say concentration and motivation has been a problem anyway this season given that City have already lost four times and been held to three other draws.

Villa have been away-day specialists under Emery

Aston Villa have had a couple of major wobbles at Villa Park since Unai Emery replaced Steven Gerrard as manager in late October.

League One Stevenage pulled their pants down in the FA Cup while Villa saw a 2-1 lead over Leicester last week capitulate into a 4-2 defeat.

But away from home, the Spanish manager has got everything right. His first road game as boss resulted in a 2-1 win at in-form Brighton, he followed that with a 2-0 success at fifth-placed Tottenham and that became nine points out of nine away from Villa Park via a 1-0 success at Southampton.

The Villans hadn't won an away game in the Premier League this season before Emery arrived so his tactical acumen has really come to the fore on Villa's travels.

But now comes the biggest test of all. Going into the weekend, City had won more home games (nine) than any other top-flight side this season although the 2-1 defeat to Brentford and 1-1 draw with Everton both came in their last four home Premier League matches.

City have 12-game winning streak

There are reasons to give Villa a sniff here but history isn't one of them. Man City have won their last 12 home Premier League games against Villa, that streak extending to a dozen after last season's final-day thriller.

For this one, Man City are just 1.282/7 to extend that sequence while Aston Villa are 1312/1 to pull off a shock. The Draw is an inflated 6.611/2.

With fingers again being pointed at City, Pep Guardiola came out swinging in his Friday press conference. It looked a classic case of a manager using the accusations to fuel a siege mentality in his team. In some ways then, a blessing in disguise if his troops needed rousing.

Let's also look a little closer at Man City's home form. Add in Cup competitions and they've won their last four at the Etihad: 4-0 v Chelsea in the FA Cup, 4-2 v Tottenham and 3-0 v Wolves in the Premier League and, most recently, 1-0 v Arsenal in the FA Cup.

City and BTTS can boost price

I think City will have too much but the basic win price is too short. However, there's reason to believe that they could concede on the way to victory.

Pep's men have conceded exactly a goal per game in the top-flight this season - 21 in 21 matches - and a back four of Lewis, Akanji, Dias and Ake doesn't exactly look watertight. John Stones remains sidelined.

Filtering out home games and City have shipped 12 in 11 at home so teams are scoring at the Etihad.

With five goals in Emery's three away games and at least one goal in every outing since the Spanish manager joined, the visitors look good to find the net so back Man City to win and Both teams to Score at 3.052/1.

Mahrez making an impact at home

The Man City goalscorer prices are always short but it's easy to justify an anytime punt on Riyah Mahrez at 13/8 on the Sportsbook.

The Algerian has fired home seven goals in his last eight games at the Etihad, that tally including braces against both Chelsea and Spurs.

There's always a chance Pep could shuffle the pack but Mahrez is perhaps more likely to start here rather than away at Arsenal in midweek when he'd be required to do more defensively.

Mahrez to score in a Man City win and Both teams to Score pays 4.77/2.

Note, this is a Bet 5 Get 5 on Bet Builders promotion so hopefully Mahrez can make it a profitable day.

Opta stat

Aston Villa have scored at least once in their eight games under Unai Emery, with their 14 goals scored in these matches as many as they'd netted in their previous 15 combined. The Villans last had a longer scoring streak in the top-flight between March and May 2010 (10 games).