Liverpool vs Manchester United: Good Casemiro, or bad Casemiro?

• Visitors 10 points clear of Liverpool

• Casemiro has been shown seven cards in his last 10 games

• A 2.8 Bet Builder is too good to turn down

Liverpool v Manchester United
Sunday March 5, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

Liverpool on the road to recovery but work to be done

Liverpool go into this match 10 points worse off than Manchester United and we can't remember the last time we were able to say that ahead of this fixture.

What's perhaps even more worrying for Liverpool is that it could have been an even bigger gap than that. And by that we mean that with three wins and a draw from their last four games, this is one of their best runs of the season.

That said, two of those wins were at home and to struggling sides in Everton and Wolves so their good form that has produced 10 points out of a possible 12 does need to be put into context.

But in addition to an improvement in results, Jurgen Klopp also has reasons to be optimistic about the next few weeks in terms of having a lot more important players available than he did a month or so ago.

Virgil van Dijk, Roberto Firmino and Diogo Jota have all recently returned from lengthy injuries so for the first time in ages, Klopp has to worry about who to leave out rather than who to put in.

On Wednesday night they put in a decent performance against Wolves with that man van Dijk reminding us that he's a big threat at the other end of the pitch by scoring the opener, in addition to being their leader at the back. Mo Salah grabbed a late second but still doesn't quite look the Salah of old.

United in irresistible form

If ever there were any doubts about Erik Ten Haag's ability to reverse the fortunes of Manchester United, they've surely disappeared by now.

He's made some tough calls along the way and the likes of Harry Maguire and Cristiano Ronaldo in particular can vouch for that. But he's made the right calls.

He's decided on the way he wants to play, the players he wants in his team and the levels of desire and discipline have been the best in years.

All of this explains why they've already bagged one trophy for the season and the way they're going, adding another in the form of the FA Cup or Europa League wouldn't be that much of a surprise.

Marcus Rashford has been attracting most of the headlines and he certainly deserves all the praise that's coming his way. Having looked something of a lost figure last year, he's been the most dangerous attacking player in the league for a few weeks now.

But from a tactical point of view, perhaps the most important piece of the jigsaw has been Casemiro. The jury was out when he signed for a huge fee on big wages aged 30 but United knew what they were getting.

A proven winner, with brilliant positioning, great experience and who just has a knack of knowing where the loose ball is going to end up. As a bonus, he's been scoring a few goals, too.

Christian Eriksen and Anthony Martial are long-term absentees; Luke Shaw should be able to shrug off a niggle to start this one.

Should Liverpool be favourites?

That Liverpool are only marginal favourites at 2.546/4 when at home tells its own story. In previous seasons, they would have been closer to 1.84/5.

If anything, we're somewhat surprised they're not any bigger than that. The reason why they're favourites at all is surely their improved recent form and their strong record against Manchester United in this fixture, having won four of their last five at Anfield against their historic rivals. That includes a 4-0 drubbing last season.

But United are in a far better place than in previous years, as mentioned already. They're available at 2.915/8 and that's a price that may see plenty of business this weekend, with backers hoping their superb run of form can allow them to improve on what has been a poor record in this game over the years.

The slight problem with that is that this isn't a match ten Hag is desperate to win.

A draw (3.75) would allow his side to keep up their unbeaten run, stop Liverpool from gaining ground on them and would be seen as a good day's work given the reputation of the opposition.

All of which means that if you're desperate to play this market, and you really don't have to, a lay of United looks the best option here.

Unders could provide a good trade

It's a little surprising that over 2.5 goals is a relatively strong favourite here at 1.728/11.

Exactly 50% of Liverpool's home games this season have gone under 2.5 goals, including each of the last three.

And exactly 50% of Man United's away games have gone under 2.5 goals, including three of their last four. And three of the last five here at Anfield between these two have also had less than three goals so if you want to have a punt on unders at 2.35/4, then you certainly have the stats in your favour.

All of which means a good option could be to back unders at 2.35/4 pre-match and trade that price in-play at around 1.75/7 for the famous Green Book.

All about Casemiro

We've mentioned that man Casemiro already and we're about to talk about him some more. This time with betting involved.

He was far from prolific at Real Madrid, his 24 goals there coming at a rate of roughly a goal every ten matches.

But that scoring record has improved since his summer move to Old Trafford.

He's scored five goals this season already across three different competitions to go with one he got at the World Cup.

They've come through a combination of ambitious shooting from outside the box, clever runs into it and a strong aerial presence from set plays.

He's a big game player and it would be just like him to pop up with a crucial goal in a game like this. The 17/2 that he scores a goal is good enough for us and if you can get better than that on the Exchange, so much the better.

But there is of course another side to Casemiro. Across all matches this season including the World Cup, he's got 11 yellow cards to go with that red against Crystal Palace.

And he certainly hasn't been afraid to put in a few challenges in recent weeks, picking up a remarkable six yellows and a red in his last 10 matches.

Given that sort of recent form (if there is such a thing when it comes to cards) and the type of uber-competitive fixture this is, the 7/5 he picks up a card here makes appeal.

An alternative to placing the two separate bets is the 11/10 that Casemiro will 'score or be shown a card' on the market with that very name. The problem with that is that we'd be missing out on that big price on him scoring if he does so.

Bet Builder to round things off

If Bet Builders are more your thing, then we might have a good one for you.

Combing the theories that United can avoid defeat (8/15 on the Double Chance market) and that the game will have under 2.5 goals (6/5), you can get 2.8 on a Bet Builder on both those events happening.