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Liverpool rock bottom of 2023 form table
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Toffees off to winning start under Dyche
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Hosts look a skinny price to take derby honours
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Wager that has paid out 40% of time in last 10 meetings can be backed at 16.015/1
Reds set for change as they seek improvement
"I cannot explain it. There is no excuse for it. We have to change it immediately in the next game."
Popcorn at the ready. Not that a Merseyside derby ever needs billing up, but Jurgen Klopp's damning words on his team's performance after the 3-0 defeat to Wolves last weekend has certainly added a bit more spice to Monday night's massive game against Everton.
Klopp was referring to Liverpool's defending when saying he can't explain it and he has no excuses for it, but what he means when saying things need to change immediately is anyone's guess.
What exactly is he going to change? His starting line-up, his formation, both perhaps? But he's right. Something has to change - not least results - if Liverpool are to move up the table.
Klopp's men sit rock bottom of the 2023 form table after taking just a single point this year. They've lost three league games on the spin away from home, conceding nine goals in the process, and in their last game at Anfield they drew 0-0 with an equally misfiring Chelsea side.
If Klopp is to make changes to his starting XI then his options are limited. Defenders Virgil van Dijk and Ibrahima Konate remain sidelined, while in attack Diego Jota, Luis Diaz and Roberto Firmino are also ruled out.
Toffees a different animal under Dyche
In time, someone will pay millions to a top university to study the 'new manager bounce' phenomenon.
It needs explaining! How does a team sitting in the relegation zone, winless since October, one draw and eight defeats in their last nine games, beat the league leaders and best team in the country this season in their first game under a new manager?
Okay, Sean Dyche is no ordinary 'new manager'. He's one of football's hard men. He bans snoods and hats in freezing temperatures during training. You wouldn't play in a woolly hat he says, so you're not training in one. Fair point.
He's the type of manager who scares you into playing well. He demands you give 100% and nothing less.
It was all evident in the win over Arsenal. And there was no fluke about the victory either.
So forget Everton's form under Frank Lampard. It counts for nothing. Under Dyche they'll be a different animal. They've played one, won one, and won without conceding. It's like Sean Dyche has never been away.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who was replaced on the hour mark last week, is a doubt for Monday's game with a thigh injury. Jose Mourinho's "he's injured forever" quote when referring to Joe Cole springs to mind.
Hosts make no appeal at all
Liverpool may win this game, they might win it convincingly. But on current form do you want to be taking odds of just 1.574/7 about them beating the Toffees in a Merseyside derby (Everton 6.86/1, Draw 4.57/2)?
Absolutely not is the answer from me.
I have to lay the Reds at that price - or if you prefer to play on the Sportsbook then back Everton or Draw in the Double Chance market at 6/4 - but the spanner in the works of course is Klopp saying he has to change things immediately following the defeat to Wolves.
As I've already said, what that means is anyone's guess and we won't know until an hour before kick-off whether he means mass changes to his starting XI.
So it's a bit of a tricky one in terms of the Match Odds. But I just can't have Liverpool at that price, and therefore I have to lay them on the Betfair Exchange at 1.584/7, especially given that these games tend to be low-scoring tight affairs anyway.
*If successful, laying Liverpool at 1.584/7 is the equivalent of backing a winner at 2.727/4.
Low-scoring games the norm in Merseyside derbies
There are a few recent exceptions of course (5-2 and 4-1 scorelines for example) but generally Merseyside derbies are very cagey affairs that feature few goals.
In fact, of the last 10 Premier Leauge meetings between the two sides, seven of them have finished with Under 2.5 Goals paying out, and four of those finished 0-0!
Opta tell us that no other fixture in Premier League history has had more goalless draws than these two.
There was also a FA Cup game during that period that ended 1-0, so that's almost 73% of the last 11 Merseyside derbies that have finished with two goals or fewer.
And yet we can back Under 2.5 Goals here at odds against, 2.166/5 to be precise. It makes little sense.
Actually, it makes some sense. Whenever the Match Odds market fancies a team strongly - as it does Liverpool here - then you'll always get an odds-on price about Over 2.5 Goals - it's 1.845/6 to back here.
But the team that is fancied strongly by the market here is Liverpool, and they're struggling, and we don't fancy them to score lots of goals. So we have to support the Under 2.5 Goals option at 2.166/5.
This would have been a successful bet during the last three Merseyside derbies at Anfield - they finished 2-0, 0-2, 1-0 - and that's when Liverpool were playing well!
Chance another goalless draw
And finally, it just makes sense to back another goalless draw. To be able to back an outcome that has happened 40% of the time in 10 games at 16.015/1 is just crazy.
To put that into perspective, if that pattern was to continue, and you placed £10 on the 0-0 at 16.015/1 during the next 10 Merseyside derbies, then you'd turn £100 into £640.
True, a 0-0 outcome is pretty rare, and the market doesn't fancy it here, but as long as it continues to pop up now and again between these two sides, then we'll keep backing it, even more so when the two teams are struggling and not exactly full of goals at the moment.