Leicester v Everton: Foxes to leave Toffees on brink

• Improving Leicester worthy favourites

• Everton awful on the road

• Fouls-based Bet Builder at 10/1

Everton's worst yet?

Is this the worst Everton side in history? Well, statistically it's looking increasingly likely.

The Toffees have just 28 points from 33 games in this season's Premier League and in their illustrious history, which stretches back beyond the foundation of the Football League, they have never ended a campaign with an average of less than a point per game (using the current three-points-for-a-win system).

To avoid that happening for the very first time, they are going to need to take 10 points from their last five matches and anyone who saw Monday's capitulation against Newcastle would find it hard to believe that is likely to happen.

Early optimism following the appointment of Sean Dyche has dissipated.

Victory over Arsenal in the new manager's first game brought real hope but the initial upturn looks increasingly like a dead-cat bounce.

Everton come into this one having taken just three points from their last six games, none of which has been won. That run has left them two points from safety with five to play - and one of those games is against Manchester City.

Technically this might not be must-win but it's not far off, especially given the need to stop Leicester - one position and one point better off - from taking anything. For the record, they are 4.03/1 for victory.

The current problems at Everton would take more space than is available to discuss here but on the field the toothless attack a major factor in their current predicament.

Everton have managed to score 2+ goals in only two games since October; that makes it very difficult to win matches.

Away from home, they've been particularly wretched, failing to score in nine of their last 12. Unsurprisingly, none of those games has been won.

If there is good news, then it is surely that Leicester are their opponents here.

Everton have won on their last two visits to the King Power Stadium, last season's 2-1 success proving vital in their successful battle for survival.

Leaky Leicester

The Foxes are also good opponents to face if you are struggling for goals; they have conceded in each of their last 18 league games - a stat which, when coupled with Everton's scoring record, paints confusing picture on the 2.5 goals line. The unders are slight favourite at 1.8810/11.

Less good for the Toffees are the signs of improvement shown by their hosts since Dean Smith replaced Brendan Rodgers.

Yes, Leicester lost his first game in charge but defeat at Manchester City is easily dismissed.

A home win over Wolves and a draw in midweek at Leeds are much more encouraging and will surely have restored some confidence for a team which has struggled all season long.

Importantly, James Maddison returned for the Leeds game and set up the goal for Jamie Vardy - a player who has performed well against Everton in the past, scoring six goals in 13 Premier League games against them.

Stopping those two will be key for Everton, who could be without Seamus Coleman due to a hamstring injury.

On recent evidence, and given their home advantage, Leicester look by far the more likely winners here and while 2.111/10 isn't the greatest price in the world, it's one worth backing to small stakes.

In terms of the sub-markets, I'm keen on fouls here given what's at stake.

The referee, Michael Oliver, could be better but the fact is his fouls-per-game figure is slightly above the league average as a whole.

Base Bet Builder on fouls

For Everton, Dwight McNeil looks decent value at 4/7 for 1+ foul, assuming he starts - he's landed this in eight of his last 11 games.

As for Leicester, I think it's worth considering what's occurred in Smith's games in charge so far.

Notably, he's placed his trust in Boubakary Soumare (pictured) as his defensive anchor and he's had 2+ fouls against both Wolves and Leeds.

Youri Tielemans has kept his foul figures high with tallies of 2-3-2 under Smith, while at the back Caglar Soyuncu, set to battle with Dominic Calvert-Lewin, has had four fouls in Leicester's last three.

All three go into the Bet Builder for 1+ fouls.

To complete the bet, let's delve into the shots markets where Everton's need for victory means they will surely be trying their luck at some stage.

Amadou Onana has had a shot in each of his last five games and is a threat from set-pieces which Leicester have issues with - only Bournemouth have conceded more shots from those situations.

We'll therefore back him for another here, as well as that man Soyuncu, who has managed a shot in all three games under Smith.

He'll likely trouble an Everton defence which also struggles against dead balls - they sit fourth in that 'set-piece shots conceded' list.

A six-legged Bet Builder may sound extravagant but hopefully the breakdown of each leg proves it is worth a try at around 10/1.

Opta fact

Since beating Brighton 2-0 in August 2021, Everton have won just two of their 33 away league games (D10 L21), with all three of their clean sheets during that run coming in 0-0 draws.

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