-
Leeds scored & conceded in last 10 league games
-
Just one clean sheet in 14 for Newcastle
-
Back 11/1 Bet Builder on a four-fold of fouls
-
Get a FREE £2 Bet Builder on any Premier League game
Leeds staring down the barrel
The heat is seriously on now for Leeds with just three games left and sitting in the drop zone, but they do have the chance to strike first in what could be a pivotal weekend in the relegation battle.
Sam Allardyce took no points but a good deal of hope from their trip to the Etihad, and with Everton playing Man City this weekend, Leicester facing Liverpool and Forest taking on Chelsea - anything they get here could be a bonus.
Leeds have responded under pressure this season, winning all four games when starting the day in the bottom three, while Big Sam has won more league games against Newcastle than any other team - so they will have hope.
Elland Road will be bouncing, and they'll need to be for a team with just one point from six games in what could be a season-defining game.
Newcastle still in charge of top four race
Defeat to Arsenal was a blow, and Newcastle are now looking over their shoulders but still have a first Champions League qualification in 20 years well within their grasp.
Eddie Howe's men need seven points from four games to be absolutely sure, although six may do it due to their goal difference - and that's only if Liverpool win all their remaining games.
So the Magpies are still well placed, and in decent form having convincingly beaten Spurs, Everton and Southampton recently, while away from home they've won four of five with only City and Arsenal having a better record on the road this term.
Can Big Sam plug the leaks?
Leeds are 15/4 home outsiders, with Newcastle odds-on at 4/6 to record another away win. It's hard to say how good a draw, priced at 16/5, would be until we see the rest of the weekend results.
It's all been about conceding goals for Leeds this season as the league's worst defence has shipped 69 goals. That's a bad recipe coming up against a Newcastle side that's scored 3+ goals against four of the bottom five.
Leeds have scored and conceded in their last 10 league games and while Newcastle's defence has been a strength all season they've kept just one clean sheet in the past 14 outings.
Big Sam will be looking to keep it tight but both teams to score is still fancied at 6/10 - which is the same price as over 2.5 goals being scored.
What we should see is plenty of tackles flying in, and I'm happier to roll with over 4.5 cards at 7/5 than I am with any of the outright plays really.
What I can see happening is the half-time draw at 13/10.
Newcastle have had some fast starts recently and Allardyce will know it, so while he'll want to use the crowd he won't go gung-ho, while Howe will want to quieten Elland Road to it suits both to make this a second-half game.
Players to back for free Bet Builder
Callum Wilson has been tremendous recently with four goals in three games and is 7/5 to score anytime - just behind 11/10 favourite Alexander Isak in the betting.
Patrick Bamford was poor at City, scored at Bournemouth and missed a sitter to beat Leicester here in Leeds' last home game, so a mixed bag from him recently.
Bamford is 15/8 to get on the scoresheet, alongside Anthony Gordon who has yet to make a big impact since moving from Everton but could help his former club out with a goal here.
Nobody's committed more fouls in the Premier League this season than Leeds and this looks a better market for backing Bamford in.
Bamford is 11/10 to have 2+ fouls as he did at City. He'll again have to do a lot of chasing so it's well within his grasp.
But nobody in the Leeds team can compare to Marc Roca, who saw his six-game run of 2+ fouls end with just the one at City.
Overall Roca has had multiple fouls in nine of 11 so at 4/5 here is well worth adding to Bamford in a fouls double.
Opt in for £2 Free Bet Builder this weekend
To make the most of the free £2 Bet Builder on offer though we'll need to go bigger, and it was a toss-up between Brazilian pair Bruno Guimaraes and Joelinton.
Guimaraes was booked against Leeds in the reverse fixture while Joelinton had three fouls, and has had multiples in four of seven. His team-mate has given away six fouls in two games.
So in the end we'll back both and make it a fouls four-fold for this Elland Road battle, given the crucial nature for both sides.