Leeds v Liverpool: Back shots galore and a shock home victory

Leeds v Liverpool
Monday 19 April, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Premier League

Europe still a realistic target

Leeds United have so far enjoyed a fantastic return to the Premier League; the highlight being last week's smash and grab win over champions-elect Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium.

I say the above with a bit of hesitancy however, as the 2-1 win over the Citizens might not end up being the highlight of Leeds' season. Beat Liverpool on Monday night and Marcelo Bielsa's side still have a realistic chance of qualifying for the Europa League, especially if teams above them win both the Carabao and FA Cup.

Leeds will be just four points off sixth place if they take all three points, and just two points behind seventh-placed Tottenham. Remember, seventh in the table often qualifies you for Europe if the domestic cup winners qualify for the Champions or Europa League through their Premier League finishing position.

So Bielsa's men having huge incentive going into the game, and they do so on the back of three consecutive 2-1 victories, so confidence should be sky high, especially after the win at the Etihad.

Champions League qualification the only target

Liverpool's Champions League exit in midweek has left their season on a knife-edge. The Reds have gone from being kings of Europe two years ago and Premier League champions last season, to now being out of every cup competition and sitting just sixth in the table.

It's all or nothing now for Jurgen Klopp's men. Only qualifying for next season's Champions League can salvage a disastrous footballing season.

And yet should Liverpool finish in the top four then some will argue that in a campaign blighted by long-term and key injuries, then they've probably achieved all that they could realistically achieve under the circumstances, and that they can start again next season.

Form, and probably now morale, isn't great going into Monday night's clash with Leeds however. The Reds have lost seven of their last 14 games, and although they've performed better on the road in that spell, they've endured enough defeats to suggest it's one step forward and two steps back every time they've looked like returning to form.

Chance taken on in-form Leeds

I'm really looking forward to this game as it should be a ding-dong clash between two managers who will class only a victory as a suitable outcome in their quest to qualify for Europe.

Leeds have come up on the rails in the race to finish in the top six (though don't forget that seventh could qualify them for the Europa League), so a win here will go a long way to keeping those dreams alive, while Liverpool simply must win this if they want to qualify for the Champions League virtue of a top four finish.

We should be set for a mouthwatering encounter then, and it's no surprise to see Over 2.5 Goals trading at just 1.68/13; it's a an outcome that really should land.

But in terms of the Match Odds then I can't get away from Leeds at 4.94/1 (Liverpool 1.75/7, Draw 4.77/2). They're in the best form they've been in all season, have beaten the likes of Everton, Leicester and Man City this term, and they're up against a side low on confidence after their midweek Champions League exit.

I wouldn't put anyone off backing a home victory with both teams getting on the scoresheet at around 7.06/1, but I was hoping for slightly bigger odds so will instead stick with a Leeds win by any outcome.

Shots galore with Raphinha shining

But for my main bet on this game I'm all over the 'shots' betting lines on the Betfair Sportsbook.

A simple scene-setter is the reverse fixture of the clash at the start of the season, a time when Liverpool had the likes of Virgil van Dijk and Joe Gomez - remember them - in their back four. That game still had 28 shots on goal with nine of them being on target.

It was a sign of how Leeds' season would pan out.

Games involving the Yorkshire outfit have averaged over 28 shots per game this term (13.84 For, 14.48 Against), with an average of 10.64 on target. Liverpool games average almost 24 shots per game.

And even looking at Leeds' most recent games, which includes a 1-0 loss to Villa and a 0-0 draw with Chelsea, those 'shots' averages have been maintained. Their las six matches have averaged 28.8 shots at goal with 9.4 being on target.

So it's very reasonable then, that in a game where both sides will be going for the win, that we can expect a similar 'shots' outcome.

On the Sportsbook, '30 Or More Shots' in the Match Shots market can be backed at 3/1 and is easily my best bet of the game.

Leeds winger Raphinha also appeals at 6/1 to register at least four shots in the game.

The flamboyant Brazilian has averaged almost three shots per game during the season, but that average takes an upturn when just considering the second half of the campaign. The 24-year-old loves to get into the box, he shoots at every opportunity, and he's Leeds' go-to man on free-kicks from around the penalty area.

*You can follow me on Twitter: @MikkyMo73