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Sunday 19 April, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports Premier League
No Goodison Park factor a help for Liverpool?
There are derbies, and then there's this one. The first Merseyside scrap at Everton's shiny new waterfront home, the Hill Dickinson Stadium, arrives with lots on the line.
Merseyside derbies are played on emotion, edge and moments of madness. And historically, nowhere bottled that better than Goodison Park.
At their famous old ground, Everton had a knack of dragging Liverpool into the trenches. Across the years, the numbers paint a clear picture as the Reds only managed to leave with maximum points twice in the last 13. Liverpool arrived as the superior side too but failed to turn that into wins, with draws and low-margin chaos dominating the pattern.
How much removing the Goodison factor will matter is impossible to quantify at this stage. But it's one that has to be on bettors' minds. Although Everton are on a run of back-to-back wins at the Hill Dickinson, this venue shift could quietly favour Liverpool, who may have more time to breathe and let their superior quality come to the fore.
I'm expecting Everton to come out fast, fuelled by the occasion, but over 90 minutes, this looks like a derby where Liverpool are more likely to impose themselves than they ever were at Goodison. And the price on the away win is a real tempter at 11/102.11 with the Betfair Sportsbook.
How to profit from first half frustration
My instincts are telling me to side with Liverpool but the numbers regarding their first half output really need addressing.
Don't be fooled into thinking the chaos dial automatically turns up just because it's a derby.
If anything, this could be a slightly more controlled affair, especially from a Liverpool perspective under Arne Slot.
And, digging into their away data reveals a glaring, and importantly consistent, trend.
Under Slot, Liverpool have adopted a far more measured approach away from Anfield. Gone is the full-throttle, early blitz we associated with previous regimes.
The Reds have scored just three first half goals in their last 17 away days. If you have been backing this Liverpool first half blank in their away games you'd have landed the money on 14 of the last 17 occasions.
When you throw in Everton's defensive soundness into the mix, the case grows even stronger. The Toffees have kept a first half clean sheet in 10 of their 16 home games and haven't conceded a first half home goal in their last four games.
Backing under 0.5 first half Liverpool goals at 5/61.84 is not a glamorous bet. It won't get the pulses racing and is not for everyone as Liverpool scoring after 23 seconds would be tough to stomach. But this bet is a clear, repeatable trend that the market still seems to slightly underestimate.
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His name is Rio...
Surely Slot has to throw Rio Ngumoha in from the start here.
Cody Gakpo made a big difference as the central striker when replacing Alexander Isak in the defeat to PSG when it was clear that Isak was still way off match sharpness. So Gakpo being selected in the midddle means the stage is set for Ngumoha off the left.
Everton won't want the 17-year-old whizzkid to play as he's fearless and full of confidence. He would be the youngest Liverpool player to appear in a Premier League Merseyside derby if he were to get some minutes which shows just what a talent he is.
We saw that in the win over Fulham, where he netted his first Anfield goal. He possesses so much intent and directness in his play that every move he makes with the ball is a forward-thinking one. His trick of luring defenders in and then quickly moving the ball onto his right foot to unleash a shot is proving difficult to stop.
His 3/14.00 anytime goalscorer price with the Betfair Sportsbook has potential.
Back Rio Ngumoha to score