Premier League Big Match Focus: How to back a 9/1 Chelsea win

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Raheem Sterling will be chasing his first Premier League goal for Chelsea

"That 2018 victory was Spurs' only win at Chelsea in their last 37 trips to Stamford Bridge, though the visitors may take inspiration from Brighton breaking their Man Utd away hoodoo last weekend."

In this week's Big Match Focus, Tom Victor previews a big London derby between Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur...

Chelsea and Tottenham will both be happy with their results on the opening weekend of the season, but Sunday's London derby will provide a big test for both sides.

Thomas Tuchel's Blues needed a Jorginho penalty to overcome a stubborn Everton side at Goodison Park, but Spurs' path to the top of the Premier League table was a little more straightforward. Despite an early scare through James Ward-Prowse's goal for Southampton, Antonio Conte's team responded with four goals of their own to show their attacking chops.

The weekend game at Stamford Bridge will allow Antonio Conte to put his current team to the test against his old employers. Both sides will have a top-four finish in their sights at a minimum - the pair are odds-on to achieve that - and it's a chance for first blood for the two London high-flyers.

The stats

Chelsea lost to Tottenham the last time Conte was in the Blues' dugout for this fixture, with two second-half goals from Dele Alli giving Spurs a 3-1 comeback victory in April 2018. Spurs won the next meeting as well, but six of the seven since have brought Chelsea wins.

That 2018 victory was Spurs' only win at Chelsea in their last 37 trips to Stamford Bridge, though the visitors may take inspiration from Brighton breaking their Man Utd away hoodoo last weekend. Conte was unable to buck the trend last season, with goals from Hakim Ziyech and Thiago Silva enough to help the Blues complete a league double after beating Nuno's Spurs in north London in September.

It's the second successive game in which Chelsea will face one of their former managers, with Frank Lampard in the opposition dugout last weekend. They were the first team to do so since, well, Chelsea themselves, back in 2016, when José Mourinho and Claudio Ranieri took on their old employers.

One of the positives for the visitors may come in the form of Harry Kane's derby record. Only Thierry Henry has scored more goals in London derbies than the England captain, but he hasn't netted against the west London side since November 2018. That was the last time any Spurs player scored a Premier League goal against Chelsea, though they have scored through an own goal in that period.

The transfers

Chelsea looked for a while as though they would go into the opening weekend with just two signings to their name. They were two vastly experienced arrivals, though, with England forward Raheem Sterling joining from Manchester City and Kalidou Koulibaly moving to Stamford Bridge after eight years with Napoli.

On the eve of the season, though, they made three further additions. United States international prospect Gaga Slonina and England under-19 star Carney Chukwuemeka are perhaps longer-term prospects, but left-back Marc Cucurella - who cost more than £50m - is one for the here and now.
Spurs, by contrast, did most of their business early. Six senior stars have joined, including loanee Clément Lenglet, at a combined cost of just under £100m.

The most expensive of the six, Richarlison, missed the victory over Southampton due to a suspension incurred when he was still an Everton player. The Brazil international could now feature, though he will have a tough time taking the place of January signing Dejan Kulusevski.

Sweden forward Kulusevski has nine assists since joining in an initial loan from Juventus, on top of his six Premier League goals. If he sets up another goal on Sunday, he will become only the second player to reach 10 assists in his first 20 Premier League games since Opta started recording the stat, with Brett Emerton of Blackburn standing alone.

Chelsea v Spurs Prediction

It's hard to ignore Chelsea's record in this fixture when predicting the result at Stamford Bridge. However, two defeats in their last three home London derbies - after two in the previous 17 - may give the visitors hope.

Spurs' opening weekend victory continues a fine run of form dating back to the end of last season, when they sealed their top four finish on the final day. Four wins on the spin have come with 13 goals scored and just one conceded.

They also have 17 points from nine away games since losing at Stamford Bridge back in January, with that run including an impressive point away to title-chasing Liverpool and a last-gasp victory at Manchester City. Still, in addition to the league double last season, Chelsea won both legs of their EFL Cup semi-final against Spurs - without conceding a goal - before losing to Liverpool at Wembley.

Against any other opponent, Conte and Tottenham would certainly feel confident of picking up a result when you consider their recent form. The biggest challenge may be mental, though, with the numbers - and the history, both recent and not so recent - favouring Tuchel's hosts.

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