Burnley v Sheffield United: Priceless tight win for Clarets

Burnley v Sheffield United
Tuesday December 29, 18:00

Same old problems for Clarets

It's a surprise to many that Burney are struggling so much this season, myself included.

They're never going to win prizes for playing the prettiest football but, although the 20 goals they've conceded is actually extremely good (it's just one more than all of the top three, for example), a return of eight goals scored is disappointing, even by their standards as perennial low-scorers.

In fact, it's the same number as rock bottom Sheffield United, making Burnley the joint-worst in the division when it comes to the 'goals for' column.

It's hard for a leopard to change its spots but when you're just not able to edge games 1-0 like you used to, you're going top have top come up with something else or pay the price.

Blades blunt upfront

We've discussed United's goals situation already when comparing it to that of Burnley. Part of the problem is that the Blades shelled out 23.5 million quid on Rhian Brewster, who looks completely unprepared for this level.

Yes, he came from the Liverpool youth system but one good season on loan at Swansea wasn't enough evidence that this was the man who was going to solve United's attacking problems.

And so it's proved, with 12 games and no goals. That's nothing against the youngster himself, more just a case that the Blades' hierarchy probably went for the wrong sort of player at that price.

Hindsight is a fine thing but, at that price, wouldn't a 25 year-old with near-on 100 senior goals under his belt have been a better bet, even if they came from say the Dutch, Belgian or French top league?

Like Burnley, it's a case of scoring more goals or preparing for life in The Championship.

Burnley can edge it

It's been a mixed set of results when these two have played here over the years.

The last five, going back to 2008 and including an EFL Cup game, have resulted in two 1-1 draws, Burnley wins by 4-2 and 1-0 , and a 2-1 win for the Blades.

If anyone thinks the 3.412/5 on Sheffield is a value bet given Burnley have been quite poor, then good for them. But I can't back them at those odds. In all honesty, I probably wouldn't back them at any odds just now.

The draw is 3.259/4 but I'd be leaning towards the 2.447/5 on Burnley.

We know Burnley can keep things tight at the back and, even though they don't score many, they probably won't need to here.

With that in mind, I think we're better off going with the Burnley win with under 2.5 goals at 10/3 on the Sportsbook, than the 2.447/5 on the Exchange on the straight win.

Goalless at the break?

Having said all that, this game could end 0-0. That's a 6/1 chance on the Sportsbook but if that involves too much nail-biting in the final few minutes, then how about the 7/5 that it's goalless at the break?

Two low-scoring sides, not wanting to concede early, biding their time? It could well be that the first-half ends 0-0.

A goal-glut (by these teams' standards) where it's 1-1 at the break pays a huge 7/1.

Wood as part of a same-game multi-bet

If you're in search of bigger prices, the same game-multi bet is always a good way to fatten up those odds based on your overall view of the game.

If like me you think Burnley will win, with under 2.5 goals in the game and top scorer Chris Wood getting one of them, it comes to 8.92198/25.