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Brentford obdurate opposition on home soil
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Spurs adjusting to a new-look approach
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Bees represent Asian Handicap appeal
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Brentford v Tottenham
Sunday August 13, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports
Brentford 3.052/1 enjoyed an excellent second season in the Premier League with Thomas Frank's team concluding the 2022/23 campaign in ninth, their best league finish since 1938. The Bees were far from a fluke, boasting a top-seven rating based on underlying metrics such as Expected Points (xP), losing only nine league fixtures all season.
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Turning champions Manchester City over home and away was an undoubted highlight for the West Londoners, who were a real threat in their own backyard. Brentford suffered just two home league defeats - both against top-four finishers - and the Bees' uncompromising direct and physical nature has caused plenty of illustrious opponents' issues.
Of course, the absence of talisman Ivan Toney must be considered a negative, whilst goalkeeper David Raya will also be absent as he seeks a move away. But Brentford still represent eye-catching Asian Handicap value, Brentford 0 & +0.5 paying an appetising 1.8810/11 - it's a selection that makes us money should the Bees avoid defeat on Sunday.
Why? Well, Tottenham 2.6213/8 begin another new era this weekend when Ange Postecoglou takes charge of his first competitive clash.
The Australian should release last season's shackles, employing a more vibrant, forward-thinking and high-energy approach, although it's questionable whether Spurs can adjust immediately to such a sea-change in attitude.
Harry Kane is a Tottenham player no more after signing for Bayern Munich. However, James Maddison is a smart signing, yet Spurs are still without midfield ace Rodrigo Bentancur, while doubts persist over the visitors' defence.
Tottenham managed only six away wins last season, shipping 2.0 goals per-game on average on their travels and I'm happy to oppose them again here.
Betfair are giving away a free Acca each weekend in August. Backing Brentford alongside Liverpool, Leicester and Cardiff returns a chunky 18/119.00 on the Sportsbook.
Goals on the agenda?
Brentford and Tottenham played out two enjoyable encounters in 2022/23, with a four-goal thriller shared at the Community Stadium, and Bees pocketing a 3-1 success away at Spurs. A similarly high-scoring contest could well be on the cards this weekend with Over 2.5 Goals paying a reasonable 1.758/11 on the Exchange.
Brentford fired only two blanks on home soil with 11/19 (58%) of those match-ups featuring Both Teams To Score winners. Meanwhile, six of the Bees' nine dates against top-half teams at the Community Stadium also beat the Over 2.5 Goals barrier.
Surprisingly, Spurs games produced the highest goals per-game output in the Premier League last season with the bulk of those matches occurring on the road. A chunky 13/19 (68%) away days saw both sides score with 11/19 (58%) even covering the Over 3.5 Goals line. The North Londoners managed just four clean sheets on their travels.
Mbeumo to make his mark
With Ivan Toney suspended until 2024, Bryan Mbeumo is likely to lead the Brentford line and the Bees hitman can be backed at 21/103.10 to Score at Anytime.
The Cameroon international finished last season with a flourish, often in Toney's absence, scoring four goals in his final six appearances. The 24-year-old landed at least one shot on-target in each of his last seven Premier League outings in 2022/23, and also notched twice away at Tottenham as recently as May.
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Recommended bets
Back Brentford +0 & +0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.8810/11Mark's 2023/24 Profit/Loss
Staked: 3 pts
Returned: 6 pts
P/L: +3 pts