Aston Villa v Everton: Toffees to get something from slow-burner

Aston Villa v Everton
Thursday May 13, 18:00
Live on Sky Sports Premier League

A Grealish-shaped hole

The last few weeks have been the epitome of inconsistency for Villa because there really has been a bit of everything.

Good wins over the likes of Fulham (home) and Everton (away), home defeats to Manchester City and United and a 2-2 draw with local rivals WBA.

Perhaps it's testament to how well they've been managed and improved team performances that the good results they did get were without Jack Grealish. Anyone would miss a player of his quality but in Villa's case the loss is even greater because they're not blessed with too many creative players. They'll still be without Grealish for this one.

Bertrand Traore has been good these last few weeks and scored at the weekend but they'll be without Ollie Watkins, who was sent off for two bookable offences against Manchester United.

Davies in form, Richarlison must do better

Too often this season Everton have had a bit of a soft centre but that wasn't the case on Sunday.

They got their goal with Dominic Calvert-Lewin on target once again and did a fine job of defending what they had. Against a good West Ham side they hung on to claim an excellent win and they'll be keen to build on it.

Two players who had good games were Allan and Tom Davies. The latter is a master at just doing the basics right while Davies has become a fine player as a physical, all-action midfielder who loves a tackle and to make a nuisance of himself.

They need more from Richarlison, though. He has all the ability but the end result isn't always there and a return of six goals for the whole season is about half the number he should have scored.

Match odds market fairly priced

Bizarrely these two played each other just over a week ago when they met at Goodison Park in the league, a match that ended with a 2-1 win for the Villains. A late Anwar El-Ghazi winner sealed it on the day with the aforementioned Calvert-Lewin and Watkins getting the others.

Everton are 2.6613/8 favourites with Villa 2.829/5 and the draw 3.613/5.

Those prices look about right. The Toffees are seven points better off in the league and fresh from a good win as we've seen already while Villa were a bit lacklustre at the weekend and are without their two best attacking players in Grealish and Watkins.

But Villa did beat this lot just over a week ago and things have been pretty even here over the past few seasons with two wins a piece.

If we can make arguments for all three outcomes at the prices, then it's because none of them makes more appeal than the others.

Everton good for a point, game low on goals

But I don't think the Toffees will lose. They look in slightly better shape than Villa just now and were good value for their win at the weekend. Some slightly better finishing and they could have won more comfortably. So I'll go with Everton to get something from the game (draw or win) but I'll add to that the match will stay under 2.5 goals.

Admittedly Villa have had some entertaining matches of late. The last four ended 1-3, 2-1, 2-2 and 1-2 but it's been a very different story for Everton. Across the whole season it's 64.7% of their away matches that have had less than 2.5 goals while all of their last six had two or less, as well.

In fact, they didn't concede in any of their last three, winning 1-0 twice and drawing 0-0.

1-0 Everton, 0-0 or 1-1 is pretty much how I see the game panning out so a quote of 8/5 that Everton win or draw in a game with less than 2.5 goals makes plenty of appeal because all those scorelines are covered.

Everton to score from the spot?

A quote of 13/8 on there being a penalty in the game doesn't make much appeal. Villa have had five all season and Everton just four. They're ranked just 10th and 14th for most penalties awarded in the division.

Villa missed one of those five while Everton were deadly, scoring all four. If you're going to play a penalty-related market, you'd be better off going with Everton scoring one, a 4/1 chance.