Arsenal v Manchester United: 10/3 Red Devils worth chancing

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Scott McTominay mat fill the void created by Casemiro's suspension

Arsenal and Manchester United meet in a huge Premier League clash on Sunday - and the visitors look a decent price to repeat their September win over the Gunners.


Thierry Henry's flick and volley on the spin.

Keane and Vieira in the Highbury tunnel.

Overmars and Wiltord scoring at Old Trafford.

The breaking of the unbeaten run and Pizzagate.

If, like me, you are of a certain age, you'll have great memories of this pair, perhaps even craved for a return to the days of Arsene Wenger and Alex Ferguson when the two sides were undoubtedly the best in the Premier League.

Now, for the first time in a long time, there is genuine hope among both sets of fans that such great times could return at Arsenal and Manchester United.

Gunners start odds-on

40/1 outsiders at the start of the campaign, Arsenal went into the weekend with a five-point lead at the top - and having played a game less than the chasing pack.

United, meanwhile, sat third with new boss Erik ten Hag having rapidly made his mark on the club. Take out his first two games in charge and only Arsenal (41) have won more Premier League points than the Red Devils' 39.

Arsenal start odds-on favourites and admittedly do have a highly-impressive home record, winning seven of eight with the other drawn, although interestingly the latter was against another of the high-fliers, Newcastle, who earned a 0-0 draw only a few weeks ago.

Casemiro a big United miss

Their price is undoubtedly shorter than it would have been had Casemiro not been booked towards the end of Wednesday's 1-1 draw at Crystal Palace.

The Brazilian is now suspended and, as one of the league's in-form players, will be sorely missed.

Still, as Ten Hag pointed out when looking ahead to this game: "We beat Arsenal last time without Casemiro. We have an idea of how to deal with that."

The fixture he was referring to came at Old Trafford in September. United won 3-1 and it remains Arsenal's only defeat of the league campaign.

It's a match which, as ten Hag says, may hold the key to how this one unfolds.

On that occasion, Scott McTominay played alongside Christian Eriksen in the United midfield and while he's become something of a figure of fun to some, the fact is he's produced some notable displays in big games over the years with some of his contributions in the Manchester derby being crucial to victories.

He may well get the nod to replace Casemiro for this one ahead of Fred.

Pace on the break will be key

In that Old Trafford game, United profited with their excellent counter attacks, Marcus Rashford scoring twice from such situations, and I'm sure the visitors will look to play on the break in this one.

They will bid to soak up the Arsenal pressure - stopping Martin Odegaard will be key to this - and profit quickly when they win back possession.

In Rashford, Antony Martial and Antony, they have players with significant pace and, just as importantly, have players with the passing ability in Eriksen and Bruno Fernandes to find them from distance.

With Arsenal usually playing a high defensive line, it's not that hard to see how United could cause their hosts problems.

It will certainly be interesting to see what tweaks, if any, Mikel Arteta makes.

His side have played very much on the front foot at the Emriates this season where they've seemed confident of outscoring opposition.

Unusually, they've conceded in 75% of their home games so far but only 30% away which is a nod to how they've played on their own patch.

While clearly odds of 1.9420/21 about a home win have the potential to look big come full time, I think there's enough about United to consider supporting them at 4.3100/30 in the win market.

Their form has been very strong of late - Palace's late goal on Wednesday halted a run of nine straight wins in all competitions - and they arrive in the knowledge that they've already beaten this team this season.

McTominay the card pick

In the sub-markets, always useful for those putting Bet Builders together, is would be wrong not to mention Rashford, who has scored in seven of the eight games he's played since returning from the World Cup.

He also has a good record against Arsenal (see below) and, at 11/4 for another here, looks tempting. Rashford to score and United to win is around 15/2.

Granit Xhaka is also worth a mention.

Having been pushed further forward this season, he's managed 2+ shots in four of his last eight league games and has potential here in that market at 5/4.

Xhaka is also renowned for his poor discipline and so it's worth noting he's been carded in six of 13 appearances against United, a run which goes back to his FC Basel days. He's 13/8 to extend that stat.

However, my other bet is going to be for McTominay to be shown a card at 15/8.

The Scot has started six Premier League games this season and has been booked in three of them.

In four of the six, he's committed two or more fouls and I'd expect something similar against this lively Arsenal team, one which has Odegaard in fine form, while centre forward Eddie Nketiah has been drawing plenty of fouls in that area of the pitch - 13 in his six games since coming in for the injured Gabriel Jesus.

McTominay has also been carded in two of five appearances against Arsenal in which he's played at least 45 minutes.

The referee is Anthony Taylor, who is carding slightly higher than the league average, while recent history in this fixture suggests he'll be kept busy the card make-ups in the last five have been 6-7-1-4-6.

Obviously if he's named on the bench, the suggestion is to cash-out the bet.

Opta fact

Marcus Rashford has been involved in eight goals in his 10 Premier League starts against Arsenal (four goals, four assists) - against no side has he produced more goal involvements in the Premier League than versus the Gunners.

Patrice Evra delivers his verdict on this weekend's Premier League games!

Recommended bets

1pt Manchester United to beat Arsenal @ 4.3100/30
1pt Scott McTominay to be shown a card @ 2.8815/8

Andy Schooler's P/L 2022/23

Staked: 21.25pts
Returned: 33.87pts
P/L: +12.62pts

Andy Schooler

Andy Schooler has been writing about sport for more than 20 years.

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