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Arsenal need three points
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Expect goals in Brighton games
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Gunners' clean sheet woes
Arsenal kept their title hopes alive last time out, but Mikel Arteta's side can't afford any more slip-ups if they are to stand a chance of glory.
There was an early scare at St James' Park, but a trip to Newcastle - arguably the Gunners' toughest remaining fixture on paper - brought a 2-0 victory. Things don't get much easier, though, with a Brighton side who caused the Londoners problems on the south coast now awaiting.
Arteta's men got the job done in the reverse fixture, emerging with a 4-2 win, and will be keen to complete a double. The Seagulls, meanwhile, will be desperate to bounce back from a shock hammering at home to Everton and get their European push back on track.
Recent history
A home win would represent just the second time Arsenal have completed a Premier League double over Brighton. They also achieved the feat in Arteta's first full season, 2020-21, with a 1-0 away win and a Nicolas Pépé-inspired 2-0 victory on home soil.
The title-challengers have won 13 of their 17 home games this term, losing just once. Not only that, but Brighton's record against teams starting the day in the top two is not the most reassuring for manager Roberto De Zerbi.
Since coming up to the top flight in 2017, Brighton have played 10 such fixtures. Nine of them have ended all-square, with the only outlier coming when the Seagulls came from 2-0 down to draw with Liverpool last season.
If that wasn't enough to convince the hosts not to rest on their laurels if they go two up, other recent results may do. Arsenal led by two against both Liverpool and West Ham in April, only for both games to end level pegging.
De Zerbi means goals
The six goals scored in the reverse fixture tell just part of the story when it comes to Brighton's results under their Italian manager. Their matches under the ex-Sassuolo boss have averaged 3.41 goals, which is the second-highest of any Premier League boss to take charge of 20 or more games.
Brighton's defeat against Arsenal in December was the first of four games overseen by the manager in which six goals have been scored.
Alexis Mac Allister's late penalty sealed a 3-3 draw with Brentford on April 1, while the last three games have featured a 6-0 win against Wolves and that 5-1 loss to Everton.
Arsenal, meanwhile, have only been involved in two games this season with six goals. They beat Leicester 4-2 back in August, while two late goals preserved a 3-3 draw with Southampton in April.
The Saliba dilemma
Much has been made of Arsenal defender William Saliba's breakthrough season in England. The Gunners have found things tough without the French international, who is still thought to be some way off a comeback from injury.
The Gunners have a 78% win rate with the youngster this season, averaging 2.4 points per game, but this drops to 50% and 1.9 points without him.
Put differently, Arsenal would sit two points ahead of Manchester City - rather than one behind them - if they averaged 2.4 points across all 35 of their games rather than just the ones in which Saliba has featured.
If Brighton are to add to the hosts' goals against column, Argentina midfielder Mac Allister could find himself responsible.
The World Cup winner needs three more goals to match the 13 scored by Glenn Murray in 2018-19, a figure which remains the highest return from a Brighton player in one Premier League season.
Arsenal v Brighton prediction
While Arsenal were able to shut out Newcastle in their last game, they shouldn't expect a repeat. Arteta's men have kept just one clean sheet in their last 10 home games in all competitions, and also lost at home to Brighton in the Carabao Cup.
There is a £2 free Bet Builder for any Premier League game this weekend, so that's where our attention is focused.
Evan Ferguson caused plenty of problems for Arsenal in the reverse fixture, and he could be a factor again after returning from injury. Arsenal to win, more than 3.5 goals and Ferguson to score or assist can be backed at 9.06.
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