Aston Villa v Sunderland, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Aston Villa 2.427/5, Sunderland 3.259/4, The Draw 3.55/2
I said about four weeks ago that Aston Villa have a nice cushion between themselves and the relegation zone; lose this game and that cushion will be about as comfortable as sleeping on a bed of nails! How did Villa get into this mess? Two words possibly? Alex and McLeish!
Ok, a manager is never solely to blame for what goes on at a football club but heads were definitely turned when McLeish was appointed Villa boss at the start of the season, five days after he had left fierce midlands rivals Birmingham. The fans have never taken to him, and I think the club have suffered as a result.
McLeish's men have won just one game - thanks to an injury time goal - at Villa Park since the beginning of November last year. That just isn't good enough. And now they face their former manager Martin O'Neill who is working wonders at Sunderland and whom has a terrific record against his former employers. Opta state that O'Neill is unbeaten in eight games against Villa, winning four and drawing four - all whilst in charge of Leicester City.
It's impossible to have any confidence in a home win but the fact that Opta tell us that the Black Cats have scored just six goals in 10 Premier League visits to Villa Park taints confidence in the away win too. The Draw could be the bet in the Match Odds market then, but I like Under 2.5 Goals at 1.784/5.
Blackburn v Norwich, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Blackburn 2.1211/10, Norwich 3.7511/4, The Draw 3.711/4
It seems that the clubs in the relegation zone are taking it in turns to go on a mini run of form. Rovers won two on the trot in the middle of March, then it was Bolton who took over the baton with three league wins on the spin, and now it's Wigan who are the form team. Blackburn fans will be praying that the Latics don't pass the baton onto QPR, and instead pass it back to their own team.
And boy do Blackburn need something right now. Steve Kean's men have lost five on the bounce, are three points adrift of safety - effectively four when you take into account their goal difference - and have away trips to Tottenham and Chelsea to come!
A win against Norwich is an absolute must then, and I just have a hunch that they'll get it. Opta tell us that the Canaries have kept just two clean sheets in 34 league games this season and I believe that will give Rovers plenty of confidence that they can get a few goals - they scored three in the reverse fixture, a game that ended 3-3. I'm not sure we'll get that many goals this time but with Norwich seemingly always on the scoresheet, and Rovers sure to go for goals, I'm pretty confident about backing Over 3.5 Goals at 2.89/5.
Bolton v Swansea, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Bolton 2.285/4, Swansea 3.613/5, The Draw 3.55/2
Of course you'd rather have points in the bag, but at least Bolton have a few games in hand at the bottom of the table and if they can win just one of them then they will have every chance of surviving the drop.
The club received a huge boost in midweek when the miraculous Fabrice Muamba (thanks to a wonderful medical team) left hospital. If he's well enough then just him being at the Reebok Stadium will get the place bouncing, and that could be the catalyst for a victory over limping Swansea.
The Swans lost four on the bounce before recording a comfortable victory over Blackburn last weekend, and I feel that if this game comes down to a pretty passing display against a never-say-die Trotters performance, then the home side will emerge victorious.
Opta tell us that Swansea haven't won at the home of Bolton in nine attempts, a run stretching back to 1980, and that they have beaten the Trotters just once in their last 11 attempts. Worryingly though, Owen Coyle's men struggle to keep the goals out; they've conceded at least two in seven of their last nine games. It's a home win for me however, possibly in a high-scoring encounter.
Recommended Bets
Best Bet: Back Bolton @ 2.285/4 to beat Swansea
Back Bolton 3-1 @ 22.021/1 and 3-2 @ 32.031/1 v Swansea
Back The Draw @ 3.55/2 in Aston Villa v Sunderland
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.784/5 in Aston Villa v Sunderland
Back Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.89/5 in Blackburn v Norwich