If Manchester United can go into the derby game against Manchester City next weekend with their current five point lead intact, then the Premier League should be all but sewn up. Surely, they would relish going to the Etihad Stadium knowing that a win would give them the title and a draw would probably also be good enough?
United first have to put Everton to the sword and the Toffeemen have not beaten the Red Devils in almost 20 years since a 0-3 victory at Old Trafford in August 1992. With United's recent disappointing display at Wigan in mind, I'm wondering if it isn't about time Everton got something out of this encounter; the law of averages says they will do eventually.
United have definitely looked tired as the season nears its finale. Everton need to bounce back from the defeat against Liverpool last week, but they have nothing more to play for, other than the pride of finishing above their neighbours.
Team news suggests that Everton will be without influential defender and dead ball specialist, Leighton Baines, which will affect their balance, whilst United have no fresh injury concerns.
Vital Stats
Head-to-head (Manchester United at home, Everton away, 14 matches since 1999, all competitions):
• Half-time: Manchester United six wins (42.9%); eight draws (57.1%); Everton no wins (0%)
• Half-time last six results (most recent first): D-H-D-H-D-H
• Less than 1.5 goals at half-time: nine times (64.3%)
• Half-time total goals last six results (most recent first): 0-1-0-1-2-1
• Less than 3.5 goals at full-time: 10 times (71.4%)
• Full-time total goals last six results (most recent first): 1-3-0-1-3-3
Manchester United's last 25 Premier League home matches
• Half-time: 16 wins (64%); seven draws (28%); two defeats (8%)
• Half-time last six results (most recent first): W-W-W-W-D-W
• Less than 1.5 goals at half-time: 15 times (60%)
• Half-time total goals last six results (most recent first): 2-1-1-1-0-1
• Less than 3.5 goals at full-time: 15 times (60%)
• Full-time total goals last six results (most recent first): 4-2-1-2-3-2
Everton's last 25 Premier League away matches
• Half-time: four wins (16%); 11 draws (44%); 10 defeats (40%)
• Half-time last six results (most recent first): D-D-L-D-D-D
• Less than 1.5 goals at half-time: 19 times (76%)
• Half-time total goals last six results (most recent first): 2-0-1-2-0-0
• Less than 3.5 goals at full-time: 21 times (84%)
• Full-time total goals last six results (most recent first): 4-2-3-2-2-2
Summary
This is one the rare games where there is no great value attached to any of the bet selections. Historical precedents and current form has led bettors to price almost every event at or below the 'zero' or 'true' odds with no event showing as a consequence any value far in excess of 30 percent.
It is not often that my spreadsheets point to a flat betting fixture across the board. This week's predictions show lower than normal value and a couple are based more on high statistical probabilities.
Recommended Bets
• Back Half-time result = Draw (Odds: 2.829/5; Zero or 'true' odds: 2.15; Value 31.3%; Probability: 46.6%)
• Back under 1.5 goals at half-time (Odds: 1.594/7; Zero or 'true' odds: 1.51; Value 15.7%; Probability: 66.1%)
• Back "Less than 3.5 goals at full-time" (Odds: 1.511/2; Zero or 'true' odds: 1.39; Value 30.7%; Probability: 71.7%)
https://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=105450965&ex=1&origin=MRL&rfr=3013