Aston Villa v Bolton, Tuesday 19:45, Match odds: Aston Villa 2.0421/20, Bolton 4.03/1, The Draw 3.613/5
A desperate sequence of just one win in 12 Premier League fixtures has seen Aston Villa plummet to within just five points of the relegation zone and six of Tuesday's visitors. Saturday's goalless draw against Sunderland made it six without a victory for Alex McLeish's side.
At the heart of their troubles is a return of only seven points from the last 33 available at Villa Park. In fact, they have won just four times at home all season - only Wigan and now relegated Wolves have won fewer.
To add to their woes, James Collins and Gabriel Agbonlahor both limped out of their weekend stalemate, though it's hoped the latter could still line up against Bolton. But Villa's record against the sides scrapping beneath them suggests their fortunes could be about to change. McLeish's side are unbeaten against the league's bottom five, winning four and drawing five.
For Bolton, the euphoria of three successive league wins was fast to fade, having taken just a solitary point from the last nine on offer. QPR's success against Tottenham means Owen Coyle's side are now four points from safety, albeit while possessing two games in hand on the three sides directly above them.
The Trotters enjoyed a 2-0 win at Villa Park in the third round of this season's Carling Cup, but their cup exploits aside, Bolton have struggled against the Villans in recent years. They have won just one of the last ten league meetings between the sides and lost three and drawn the other of their previous four trips to Villa Park. What's more, they conceded four or more in each of those three defeats.
And their recent form away from home is similarly desperate, losing five of their previous six in the league, shipping 14 goals in the process. But they have fared rather better against fellow strugglers, beating each of the other four sides in the bottom five on their travels.
Only two of the last eight matches at Villa Park have produced in excess of 2.5 goals, whereas three have either been settled by a single strike or ended goalless. Meanwhile, Bolton's last two league matches have both contained two goals, as have three of their previous five league fixtures on the road.
Bolton have scored just once in their previous three games and have failed to score in all but one of their last six league fixtures on their travels. And though Villa are struggling at home, they have kept two clean sheets in their previous four outings at Villa Park. McLeish's side are a generous 2.9215/8 to enjoy a second successive shutout.
Best Bet: Back Aston Villa to win @ 2.0421/20
Other Recommended Bet: Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.981/1