Northern Ireland v USA
Sunday 28 March, 17:05
Live on Sky Sports
An inconvenience for Northern Ireland
A friendly against USA is hardly what Ian Baraclough would have wanted in-between two World Cup Qualifiers, but that's what he's got, and it will at least give him the chance to give some of his fringe players a game.
The Irish were beaten 2-0 in Italy on Thursday, with the match all but over at half time as the Italians scored both goals in the opening 45 minutes.
Norn did have a few chances in the second period though, so it wasn't a total wash-out for them, and they wouldn't have expected to get anything from their hardest fixture of their group.
USA in fine form
The Stars and Stripes haven't had a competitive fixture since November's 4-0 victory over Cuba in the CONCACAF Nations League.
Since then they have played six friendlies, winning five and drawing one - scoring 24 goals and conceding just three.
Gregg Berhalter will be hoping to continue that momentum in Belfast on Saturday, and he will likely pick a strong team, given that they don't play again until May.
It is worth noting through that Tyler Adams and Tim Weah are missing due to coronavirus protocols, and Reggie Cannon and John Brooks who were in the squad last time have returned to their clubs.
Another defeat for the Irish
The Betfair Exchange markets haven't quite firmed up yet, so I will use the Sportsbook as a guide. The hosts are 3.814/5 on the fixed odds, with the draw at 3.711/4 and the visitors at 1.910/11.
Baraclough has only won one match since he was appointed as manager of the Irish - and that was only on penalties. They haven't been getting beaten out of sight - bar Norway at home - but they just don't score enough goals.
In contrast, the goals have been flowing for the US in recent months, and while they have only been facing the likes of Jamaica, Trinidad & Tobago, and Panama, they did beat Costa Rica 1-0 and drew 0-0 with Wales.
The Welsh are a better team than Northern Ireland, and this won't even be a full-strength, Green and White Army. On that basis, I am keen to back the visitors, and you might even get evens on the exchange nearer the time.
Take a chance on goals
It's a similar story re. liquidity on the Exchange at time of writing, but on the Sportsbook, Over 2.5 Goals is 2.166/5 and Under 2.5 is 1.664/6.
I know this is Northern Ireland we are talking about, but this will largely be a completely different XI than usual, and with the USA scoring goals for fun, I think that the outsider is worth backing here.
It will also be interesting to see what Over 3.5 Goals is trading at on the Exchange, in the run-up to kick off.
Recommended bets
2020/21 P/L (1pt each bet)
Wagered: 54pts
Returned: 58.25pts
P/L: +4.25pts
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