Wales v Belarus: Goals could be scarce in Cardiff

Wales v Belarus
Saturday, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports Football

Wales eyeing second spot

It's a simple equation for Wales in Group E. They have two World Cup qualifiers to play and four points from that pair of home games will secure second spot whatever the Czech Republic do in their final outing on Tuesday.

The Czechs are currently above Wales on goal difference but have played a game more.

The good news for Wales: their first opponents are bottom-placed Belarus.

The bad news for Wales: their final opponents are runaway group leaders Belgium.

There are a couple of howevers that need explaining though.

If Belgium get as little as a point at home to Estonia on Saturday night, they'll have won the group. And that could mean they take their foot off the gas for that group closer in Wales.

Secondly, after Spain beat Greece on Thursday night, Wales are already guaranteed a play-off place due to their performances in the Nations League.

But by finishing second to Belgium in World Cup qualifying, Robert Page's men are likelier to receive a more favourable opponent when the draw for the play-offs is made.

In other words, there is plenty of incentive to finish above the Czechs, who close their campaign with a home game against second-bottom Estonia (just four points from six games).

Belarus bottom but can't be taken for granted

On the face of it, Belarus are easily beatable. They've lost six of their seven games and that includes a trio of defeats on the road.

But they have thrown in some decent performances. The highlight was the 4-2 home win over Estonia while they only lost by a single goal against the Czech Republic in Prague.

After being thrashed 8-0 by Belgium back in March, they lost just 1-0 to the same opponents at home in September. And then, of course, there was that dramatic first meeting with Wales...

Wales big favourites to bag crucial win

The Welsh came close to blowing it in Belarus but escaped with a 3-2 victory thanks to Gareth Bale.

Bale fired home a hat-trick, netting twice from the spot before popping up to hit a last-gasp winner three minutes into added time. Almost unbelievably, they were his first goals in a Wales shirt for two years.

Bale hasn't played since picking up a hamstring injury in September but the good news for Wales is that he's since returned to full training with Real Madrid.

Welsh teammates have been talking up how well he looks and, all being well, Bale will win his 100th cap on Saturday evening.

Wales are just 1.222/9 to get the win in Cardiff while Belarus are 17.016/1. The Draw is 7.06/1.

A reminder of Wales' home results so far: 1-0 v Czech Republic and 0-0 v 0 Estonia.

That suggests something low-scoring rather than a Welsh romp and past head-to-heads point to something similar.

The duo have played six times and there's never been more than a goal in it (Wales have won five while Belarus won 2-1 at home in 2000).

As for the two meetings on Welsh soil, both ended 1-0. The first was a World Cup qualifier in 2001 while the most recent was a friendly in 2019.

That was secured by a Daniel James strike in front of just 7,666 fans in Cardiff. Bale came on after 50 minutes.

Wales stats scream Under 2.5 goals

On first glance, Unders looks surprisingly big at 2.166/5.

The argument against it would be two-fold. First is that this pair shared five goals in the first encounter.

Second is the goal difference factor. Wales are currently two goals worse off than the Czechs so if they rack up a hatful, they could switch that around.

However, such an idea seems fanciful because, quite simply, Wales don't do that at home.

Going back to March 2019, 12 of Wales' 14 home games have featured fewer than three goals. In 2021, their home results show 1-0 wins over Mexico and the Czechs along with 0-0s against Albania and Estonia.

A more likely scenario on Saturday is that it's a slightly frustrating night and Wales just about do enough.

Belarus have tightened up on the road, losing 1-0 to the Czech Republic and 2-0 to Estonia in their last two away games and they're likely to prove stubborn rivals.

Overall, Under 2.5 Goals has to be the bet.

Ramsey offers Bet Builder option

Kieffer Moore is suspended for Wales which deprives them of a focal point and a potential goalscorer.

Bale is likely to attract the vast majority of scorer punts but the 4/6 (Sportsbook) looks short.

Aaron Ramsey would be another to look at. He's 7/4 to find the net.

Ramsey to score in a 1-0 Wales win is around 2928/1 on the Bet Builder and that certainly seems within reason.