Tuesday Football Tips: Bayern to think outside the box

Leon Goretzka
Back Leon Goretzka to hit the target for Bayern against PSG

Paul Higham expects Bayern Munich to fire shots in early and often against PSG, and that's where Tuesday's best bet comes from.

"Goretzka has had 13 shots from outside the box in the Bundesliga this season and six of his 10 shots in the Champions League have also come from outside the area. PSG will be sitting back so pot shots will come flying in from Bayern."

Back Leon Goretzka to have a shot on target from outside the box in PSG v Bayern @ 4.03/1

PSG vs Bayern
Tuesday 13 April, 20:00 BST kick-off
Live on BT Sport 3

Only one place to head to on Tuesday and that's the huge Champions League tie between PSG and Bayern Munich, which will have to go some to beat last week's entertaining encounter.

PSG pinched that one 3-2 but Bayern bossed it in terms of chances and possession, having 61% of the ball and firing in 31 shots with 12 of those hitting the target.

The defending champions could, and should, have come away with the victory in that game had their finishing been better, but what that result does is set up a classic second leg.

Bayern will dominate again in terms of possession, territory and chances, but PSG are just electric on the break, as they showed in the first leg, and they'll again be like coiled springs waiting to pounce as soon as they can pinch the ball off the German champions.

Bayern are 2.26/5 favourites to win the game and after last week all their major statistical bets come at pretty short odds, as they're expected to have plenty of shots, shots on target and corners.

Thomas Muller will again be the main man and with Marquinhos not playing for PSG then Muller should be able to grab two shots on target at a return of 2.35/4. He's also 4.03/1 to get a header on target and since he scored with his head last week that's not the worst bet in the world.

We're looking a bit deeper though and towards midfield man Leon Goretzka, who managed a shot on target during the half-hour he played in the first leg before coming off with a muscle problem.

Bayern boss Hansi Flick has said Goretzka has looked good in training though and he's crucial to the Bayern set-up so is set to return for the Parc des Princes showdown.

Given Bayern need goals, and that PSG will sit deep and try to hit them on the break, it's set up for the Germans to unload early and often to break the deadlock - meaning shots from outside the box should be forthcoming.

Goretzka has had 13 shots from outside the box in the Bundesliga this season, and six of his 10 shots in the Champions League have also come from outside the area.

At 4.03/1 for Goretzka to hit the target from outside the box, it's a decent return for what looks a likely outcome.

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Column P/L

Staked: 29pts
Returned: 26.22pts
P/L: -2.78pts

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