Thursday Football Tips: Go unders in Baltic Cup decider

Estonia v Latvia
Back the unders in Estonia v Latvia

All the stats point to a low-scoring affair as Estonia host Latvia in the final Baltic Cup tie in Tallinn, according to Paul Higham's best bet...

"Only one of the last ten meetings have gone over 2.5 goals and only three eclipsed 1.5 goals so it does not look like a goalfest in store."

Back under 1.5 goals in Estonia v Latvia @ 2.8815/8

Estonia v Latvia
Thursday 10 June, 17:00 BST kick-off

And you thought the Euros was the only big tournament this week? Wrong! As the Baltic Cup concludes on Thursday with the trophy up for grabs in the final match of the three-team event.

Estonia host Latvia in Tallinn with both sides having already beaten Lithuania and looking to clinch the 27th Baltic Cup title.

The competition has a colouful and eventful history since being introduced in 1928 but being halted due to the three Baltic states being occupied by the Soviet Union and also several fall-outs between the participants - including it being called off due to a row between Lithuania and Latvia after a controversial basketball game!

Latvia have won the last four Baltic Cups and lead the standings with 13 wins to Lithuania's 10 while Estonia have only lifted the trophy three times.

A 3-1 win for Latvia over Lithuania compared to a 1-0 success for Estonia leaves the hosts needing a victory to win the title as a draw would see the Latvians prosper thanks to goal difference.

The draw is 3.39/4 here, with the last three meetings in Estonia and six of the last eight overall being stalemates. Latvia are the outsiders at 3.02/1 and hosts Estonia favourites at 2.111/10.

Neither side have particularly good form coming in, although Estonia have won their last two, including a victory over Finland last time out which is the best win for either side in some time.

How Estonia could be favourites against anyone at home is a mystery given they're without a win in 14 games (L10 D4), while Latvia have been pretty good on the road in the last eight (W2 D4 L2) including a draw in Turkey.

The situation suggests that it will be a cagey affair, and so do the stats, with the aforementioned six draws in eight meetings, including four 0-0 affairs.

Only one of those last ten went over 2.5 goals and only three eclipsed 1.5 goals so it does not look like a goalfest in store.

To that end, back the under 1.5 goals for the game at 2.8815/8.


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Staked: 78pts
Returned: 71.68pts
P/L: -6.32pts

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