Fresh from an 8/1 winner, our stats-based column has a 4/1 cards selection for Arsenal's Europa League quarter-final with Slavia Prague on Thursday...
"The Danish international has been carded eight times in 26 starts this season. Last term it was 11 in 33."
Arsenal v Slavia Prague
Thursday 8 April, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 1
Alexander Bah was mentioned in this column as a possible cards bet a few weeks ago against Rangers.
Things were going well with two fouls before the Scottish champions went down to 10 men and suddenly the pressure eased on the Slavia defence.
However, Thursday night looks time to turn back Bah's way with the Slavia right-back again up at 4/1 in the 'to be booked' market.
Following another booking in the Czech league at the weekend, the Danish international has been carded eight times in 26 starts this season. Last term it was 11 in 33.
A simple correlation from those, and only those, stats suggest he should be just above 2/1 for a card.
Bah has avoided one so far in his four Europa League games despite committing eight fouls across those matches.
However, he is likely to be in for a busy night here, even given the absence of the injured Kieran Tierney.
Bukayo Saka is fit again and looks set to play down the Arsenal left, probably as a wing-back. He'll be a tricky opponent, as will Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, who often starts on the left of the Gunners' attack.
The referee, Andreas Ekberg, is also a decent appointment for those looking for cards. He's shown four or more in eight of his last 10 European matches.
The Swede will likely be aware of the fact that Slavia have committed the most fouls in this season's Europa League - they average over 16 per game - and so a player who has regularly troubled the officials simply looks too big at 4/1 here.
(based on 1pt per preview)
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