Saturday Football Tips: Storm Cards on its way to Valencia

Ivan Balliu
Ivan Balliu: Carded six times in 13 appearances this season
  • Valencia CF vs Rayo Vallecano
  • Sat 27 Nov, 15:15

Conditions look perfect for a cards storm when Valencia host Rayo Vallecano in La Liga on Saturday - our football props column looks to benefit...

"We’ve got La Liga’s highest-carding referee in charge, Alejandro Hernandez Hernandez, who is averaging 7.33 yellow cards per game thus far. He’s also shown one red."

This game looks manna from heaven for cards fans.

First up, we've got La Liga's highest-carding referee in charge, Alejandro Hernandez Hernandez, who is averaging 7.33 yellow cards per game thus far. He's also shown one red.

For those concerned about the relatively small data sample (six games), don't fret. He was second in the 'strict list' last season, seventh in 2019/20 and first in 2018/19.

We've also got the team bottom of the Spanish top flight's fair-play table in Valencia - they've had 45 yellows and two reds in their 14 league games so far.

Rayo, impressing upon their return to the Primera Division and currently sitting sixth in the overall standings - four places above their hosts, have collected the sixth-most yellows (36 in their 14 matches).

Valencia CF

  • L
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • L

Rayo Vallecano

  • L
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • Atlético de Madrid 3 2 Valencia CF
  • Valencia CF 1 1 Sevilla
  • Atlético Baleares 0 1 Valencia CF
  • Real Madrid 4 1 Valencia CF
  • Cartagena 1 2 Valencia CF
  • Valencia CF 1 2 Espanyol
  • Rayo Vallecano 0 1 Athletic Club
  • Barcelona 0 0 Rayo Vallecano
  • Girona 1 2 Rayo Vallecano
  • Rayo Vallecano 1 1 Real Betis
  • Mirandés 0 1 Rayo Vallecano
  • Atlético de Madrid 2 0 Rayo Vallecano

Valencia CF vs Rayo Vallecano Saturday 27 November, 15:15

Full stats

So, ref - check; teams - check; competitive game - check. It's now a case of deciding on a bet.

As you'd imagine, the booking points line is set pretty high - over 70 is just 13/10.

But there does look to be some value remaining in the player-to-be-carded market.

Let's start with Valencia centre-back Omar Alderete, La Liga's most-carded player this season.

The Paraguayan, on loan from German side Hertha Berlin, is struggling to adapt to life in Spain and has collected eight yellow cards in just 12 starts so far.

Add in his four bookings in six internationals since June and you can see why odds of 2/1 about him going into the notebook in this game make appeal.

On the Rayo side, right-back Ivan Balliu is the obvious candidate for a card.

He's received one in six of his 13 games this season, adding to 14 in 34 in La Liga last term.

I'll add the Albanian to Alderete to create a card double which pays 7.53.

For those seeking a bigger price, you could also include Valencia's Hugo Guillamon.

Carded nine times in 27 games at centre-back in 2020/21, he's been moved into a defensive-midfield role this season and it's no surprise to see his card figures have risen even further.

He's already received five yellows and a red in 11 games, while no-one has given away more fouls in La Liga.

For the record, the treble is offered at 19.57.

Saturday Cheat Sheet: All the best football bets in one place!

Column 2021/22 P/L

Staked: 101pts
Returned: 131.64pts
P/L: +30.64pts

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