Saturday Football Tips: Drop fears can boost shots tally

Diego Simeone Stefan Savic
Diego Simeone's Atletico Madrid will chase the title without Stefan Savic

Fuelled by fear of relegation, Real Valladolid should get plenty of shots away against title-chasing Atletico Madrid in La Liga on Saturday, says Andy Schooler...

"Across their last seven matches, they’ve hit 11+ in six of them yet that’s a 8/5 shot here."

Back Valladolid 11+ shots @ 8/5

Real Valladolid v Atletico Madrid
Saturday 22 May, 17:00
Live on Premier Sports 2 and Betfair Live Video

It's do-or-die time for Atletico Madrid.

They've led la Liga for the vast majority of the season but it could all count for nothing if they fail to win this game.

At 1/3, they are expected to claim the victory - and the title. After all they are facing a team second-bottom with just five wins all season.

However, Valladolid also still have something to fight for - they aren't relegated yet, but they will be if they don't win this contest.

The fact the hosts are still fighting for their lives leads us to the best bet.

Valladolid's need for points will surely result in shots.

They've managed 19+ in two of their last three games as they've battled to save themselves from the drop.

Across their last seven matches, they've hit 11+ shots in six of them yet that's a 8/5 chance here. It looks worth backing.

The Valladolid shot prices are presumably based on Atletico's renowned defence, one which has conceded a miserly 24 goals in 37 league games so far.

Yet a look at the shot stats show that actually five teams have conceded fewer than Atletico, who average 9.5 shots against them per game. Interestingly one of the five is Real Sociedad, against whom Valladolid managed 19 shots only last week - and with 10 men for a third of the game.

That 9.5 figure is obviously still below the mark of 11 but Valladolid's desperation means they could well outperform that, especially given the Atletico defence will be without lynchpin Stefan Savic due to suspension.

For those after a bigger price, the 13/2 about 14+ home shots is also tempting.

That's landed in three of Valladolid's last five games and certainly can't be ruled out against a sure-to-be-nervy Atletico given the hosts' perilous position.

Click here for Dan Fitch's preview of La Liga's final day

Column P/L

Staked: 60pts
Returned: 52.53pts
P/L: -7.47pts

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