Football Bet of the Day: Oltra exciting game in Spain

Tobias Gourlay
Published on 04 Jan 2015 at 11:14
Updated on 04 Jan 2015 at 12:47

Super Sabadell: Goals have been flying in at the Nova Creu Alta

"Six of struggling Sabadell's last eight Segunda Division games have delivered at least three match goals"

Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.427/5 in Sabadell v Recreativo

Tobias Gourlay has dug deep and found reasons to go against a goals market in Catalonia this afternoon

Sabadell v Recreativo
Sunday 16:00

Bursaspor 3 Akhisar Belediye 1 in Turkey yesterday. Back to the drawing board for Roberto Carlos, but we press on.

To Spain, where six of struggling Sabadell's last eight Segunda Division games have delivered Over 2.5 Goals, including 3/4 at the Nova Creu Alta.

17th-placed Recreativo come to Catalonia this afternoon having failed to score in their last three away matches. But those were against teams much higher up the table than second-bottom Sabadell.

Jose Luis Oltra's men have still seen 4/8 go Over 2.5 Goals on the road, but that's not what's really pushing us towards something odds-against. Bear with us...

Football Form Labs data shows that this season and last Sabadell have played 10 games at home to teams from the bottom half of the table (excluding matches from the first 10 rounds of the season, when the table hasn't settled down properly). There's been one clean sheet at either end and 9/10 have produced Over 2.5 Goals.

Going back to 2011/12 (but also excluding their early-season rounds), Recreativo have visited 12 teams in the bottom six. Both teams have scored in 10/12 and 8/12 have spewed out Over 2.5 Goals.

Now look at that price again.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.427/5 in Sabadell v Recreativo

2015 P/L (1pt per bet)

Staked: 3pts
Returned: 5.38pts

P/L: +2.38pts

Available to new customers only. Place a £10 bet on the Betfair Sportsbook and you will receive £50 in free bets to use on Bet Builders and Accas! Opt-in here and T&cs apply.