Palmeiras are closing in on the Brazilian title and Tobias Gourlay thinks some obliging visitors will help them on their way tonight
"Palmeiras are W24-D3-L2 hosting teams that either finished in the bottom half or are in the wrong half of the current table"
Palmeiras v America MG
Peru 2 Costa Rica 3 gave us an even-money winner with something to spare in Arequipa last night. Don't blame us if we stick around South America today.
In Brazil, the 36th and ante-penultimate round of Serie A is upon us. Five points clear at the top, Palmeiras will win the title tonight if they win and chasing Flamengo and Internacional both fail to win. Our focus is on the first half of that equation, which we expect Palmeiras to deliver on.
The league leaders have won 10/10 at Allianz Parque since Luiz Felipe Scolari took the reins midway through the campaign. The Big Green have scored at least twice in each of their most recent five home wins, and won 6/10 by at least a couple of goals. Since the start of the 2016 season, they are W24-D3-L2 hosting teams that either finished in the bottom half or are in the wrong half of the current table. Thirteen of those 24 wins came by margins of at least two goals.
America MG are poor travellers. Seventeenth in the 20-team table, they are W2-D3-L12 on the road this term. Promoted back to the top flight, the Rabbits have been caught in the headlights: they've managed only three goals in nine previous trips to top-10 teams. They've already lost 0-2 to both Flamengo and Internacional, and we fancy Palmeiras to match their closest rivals tonight - and perhaps finish the title race.
2018 P/L (1pt per bet)
Back Palmeiras -1.5 on the Asian Handicap @ [1.92] v America MG