Football Bet of the Day: No carnival in Sweden

Kalmar FF v Orebro
Monday 18:00

Borussia Dortmund breezed through yesterday's bullfight like 11 virtuoso matadors. Their 4-1 win over Leipzig leaves Kev licking his wounds, but he's got a week to recover - and you know he'll be back stronger than ever.

We're spending the bank holiday in Sweden, where one of this evening's top-flight Allsvenskan matches pits Kalmar FF at home to Orebro. We fancy it could be a quiet one.

Nanne Bergstrand's hosts are running ninth in the 16-team league. The Red Brothers have served up just 15 match goals across eight previous appearances at the Guldfageln Arena. They've scored more than once in only 2/8 and conceded more than once in 1/8. Six of the eight finished with Under 2.5 Goals in total. Since Bergstrand arrived midway through last season, 75% of their home games have been low scorers (12/16).

Axel Kjall's Orebro are two places and six points below the home side. They went unbeaten through their first seven games but, since then, they've won only one more game (D2-L8) and have scored just seven times in 11 matches at home and away. On the road, they've found the back of the net once in five games. All five matches stayed Under 2.5 Goals and, at a plump odds-against price, that's our bet of the day.