Christian Streich takes Freiburg to Hamburg tonight but Tobias Gourlay thinks goals will be at a premium
"10/15 Hamburg home games have delivered Under 2.5 Goals in total. There have been two goals or fewer in exactly the same fraction of Freiburg's away matches"
Hamburg v Freiburg
Napoli left us a goal short in the Europa League last night but they will get their comeuppance.
At least, they still have a lot more to do in Ukraine than they might have done.
Moving on, 14th-placed Hamburg have scored fewer home goals (13 in 15 matches) than anyone else in this season's Bundesliga.
Their defensive record at the Imtech Arena is much better: 17 goals conceded makes them the eighth best in the league at defending on home turf.
Two-thirds of those matches (10/15) have delivered Under 2.5 Goals in total. There have been two goals or fewer in exactly the same fraction of 16th-placed Freiburg's away matches.
Christian Streich has seen his troops fail to score in five of their last seven away from home.
With Hamburg failing to score in 5/8 home games, it seems unlikely that either team will come out shooting from both hips in a game with so much riding on its outcome.
Even though this a relegation six-pointer, Germany's wider reputation for producing entertaining club football helps us get a good price on a low-scorer this evening.
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.0621/20 in Hamburg v Freiburg
2015 P/L (1pt per bet)