Newcastle v Man City
Friday 14 May, 20:00 kick off
Live on Sky Sports
A Friday night out in Newcastle has always been a great place to celebrate, and few doubt that Manchester City will enjoy their title party at the Toon.
Personally, I think there's the potential for Steve Bruce's side to make it a bit tougher than expected for City, but I'd by no means be interested in backing the Magpies to any degree.
And while City are huge favourites, Pep Guardiola selection bingo is tough enough in normal circumstances, let alone when they've just got the Premier League done and dusted and have been celebrating in the week.
Any City starting XI could turn out at St James' Park and that makes picking out any prop bets on the visitors a tough task. Skinny odds and questions over selection are just not the conditions you want.
You'd expect Sergio Aguero to start as he begins his long goodbye from the club, he's probably not on the pens after that appalling effort against Chelsea though.
Instead, though, we see some definite value in looking at the Newcastle side of things, with City maybe taking their eyes off the ball just slightly even in what should be a comfortable win.
Step forward Allan Saint-Maximin, Newcastle's livewire Frenchman who has the skill and the flair that wouldn't look out of place in the City team.
His running ability will give City plenty of problems even if he doesn't get plenty of the ball - he's quick, direct, and importantly for us has been having a pop at goal recently.
Saint-Maximin has had two-plus shots in four of the last five games for Newcastle - including a five-shot outing against West Ham - with one shot on target in those four games.
He's 1.84/5 for a shot on target and 5.59/2 to have two shots on target.
However, with possession set to be at a premium, we fancy Saint-Maximin to be forced to have a pot-shot, and with 13 of his 27 shots this season coming from outside the area, the 3.39/4 on him having one shot on target from outside the box is the way we're going for a Friday night return.