The market's expecting a few goals in tonight's Serie A match, but Tobias Gourlay's not so sure
"Back in the big time, Aurelio Andreazzoli's hosts have conceded just eight times in seven matches"
Empoli v Roma
Saturday 19:30 (Live on Eleven Sports 2)
Gamba Osaka won this morning's derby in Japan 1-0. It followed Friday's game in Yokohama, which got to three goals by half-time then stalled. We got our stake back on that one, but we're leaving the Land of the Rising Sun before the sky falls in on us.
In Italy, tonight's Serie A match pitches Empoli at home to Roma. In their first season back in the top flight, the hosts are down in the bottom three (W1-D2-L4), but they are not a lost cause. Home and away, Aurelio Andreazzoli's men have conceded just eight times in seven matches, which include a narrow 0-1 home loss to Lazio and a 1-1 home draw with AC Milan. In fact, all three matches at the Carlo Castellani have finished with Under 2.5 Goals and we're delighted to see that outcome trading beyond [2.50] this morning.
Eusebio Di Francesco's Roma have notched a couple of big home wins recently, but they are not prolific travellers. They've struck just twice across three away games so far this season. Under the current boss, they've scored more than twice in just 4/22. Seventeen of those 22 finished with Under 2.5 Goals, which means today's offer from the layers is too good to refuse.
2018 P/L (1pt per bet)
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ [2.54] in Empoli v Roma