Football Bet of the Day: Falkenbergs to fail hard in Sweden

Djurgardens v Falkenbergs
Tuesday 18:00

In Norway yesterday, Stabaek left it very late, but the hosts eventually grabbed a 90th-minute consolation to lose 1-2 to Molde and bring home our BTTS bet at the last. That knowledge might not improve their mood, but it does help us. We cross the border into Sweden with a spring in our step.

Djurgardens are top of the top-flight Allsvenskan, having won seven of their last eight home matches. Only second-placed Malmo stopped them from taking all three points. In all seven of those wins, the margin of victory was at least two goals. The most recent three of those successes all came against teams from the bottom half of the table and the combined score was 9-0 to the hosts.

Third-bottom Falkenbergs, who were only promoted last season, must arrive at the Tele2 Arena burdened by trepidation. Djurgardens only finished seventh last season, but still won this fixture 5-0. They won this term's reverse fixture 3-0. In fact, home and away Djurgardens have won the last six head-to-heads - the last five by at least a couple of goals.

This season Falkenbergs have the worst away record in the league (W0-D3-L9). They've conceded more away goals than anyone else (35 across those 12 games). Visiting the other teams now alongside Djurgardens in the top five, they have lost 4/4 by a combined 3-17. Having conceded in those matches at a rate of more than four goals a game, we're very comfortable backing tonight's hosts to win with something to spare.