Anthony Martial can score again after Southampton brace
Manchester United vs Everton
Saturday, 20:00
Goalscorer: Anthony Martial to score anytime @ 7/5
Anthony Martial enjoyed his best season since arriving in Manchester last campaign, impressively scoring 17 goals from 11.7 xG. While that level of overperformance was bound to be unsustainable, not many would have predicted Martial's sudden lack of form in front of goal this time around. He's scored just four goals (6.4 xG) this term, ending his eight-match goal drought against Southampton in midweek.
The Frenchman took both of his goals well (35% and 58%) on that occasion to help United humiliate Southampton, although it always seemed inevitable his poor run would end sooner than later. Martial has recorded 0.5 xG/avg match this season, which means despite his barren run, he consistently found himself in reasonable areas to find the back of the net. After netting a brace, United's number nine should be high on confidence, and he can ride the crest of that wave to score against Everton.
Carded: Gylfi Sigurdsson to be booked @ 5/1
At 31-years-old, Gylfi Sigurdsson is still seemingly an essential part of Carlo Ancelotti's plans at Everton. While he's provided a few important goals in recent weeks, he's an interesting proposition to receive a booking at Old Trafford. The Icelandic's 46% tackle success rate is notably poor, and Sigurdsson received a caution against Newcastle for committing a lunging challenge. Up against a strong Manchester United midfield, the 5/1 for Sigurdsson to be booked is an attractive play.
Same Game Multi: Man United win and under 2.5 goals @ 3.99299/100
As mentioned, Manchester United ruthlessly dismantled Southampton in midweek (xG: MUN 5.0 - 0.5 SOU). That was an outstanding, record breaking display, although without sounding obvious, results of such calibre are exceptionally rare. Regardless, United's underlying numbers (1.9 xGF and 1.30 xGA pg) are among the league's most elite, but they've actually played better when away from home this season. Before Southampton's capitulation, the Red Devils had created an average of 1.6 xGF per game at home, scoring just 13 goals across 10 games.
Everton's improving defence will therefore be optimistic of limiting the hosts' opportunities. The Toffees have conceded an average 1.3 xGA per game across their last 10 fixtures, conceding just eight times. They've also excelled on the road which means they should prove to be tricky opposition here. I'm expecting Ancelotti's side to be hard to break down, although United should have enough quality to breach their lines of defence in a low scoring game.
Son Heung-min can exploit struggling West Brom
Goalscorer: Son Heung-min to score anytime @ 10/11
With Harry Kane still sidelined, Son Heung-min is shouldering the responsibility of finding the back of the net for Tottenham Hotspur. Son has incredibly outperformed his xG since Infogol's records began, establishing himself as one of the Premier League's most clinical forwards.
This season has been no different, with the South-Korean scoring 12 goals from 7.1 xG, which means he's just three goals short of Mohamed Salah (15), the league's top goalscorer. Unlike Salah, though, Son takes his chances with great efficiency. He's understandably a short price to score anytime in this game, but he's Tottenham's most obvious source of inspiration heading into this clash, making him a solid bet.
Carded: Semi Ajayi to be booked @ 9/2
Semi Ajayi has been excellent in West Brom's fight for survival, scoring against Liverpool and Wolves to secure the Baggies invaluable points. His exploits in front of goal as a centre-half naturally grab the headlines, but Ajayi hasn't went under referees' radars at the back, either. He's already picked up three yellows this term, making the 9/2 an appealing price to side with.
Same Game Multi: Tottenham to win, Son two shots on target, Son to score anytime and Under 3.5 goals @ 7/1 (#OddsOnThat price boost)
Tottenham were simply abysmal against Chelsea on Thursday, with their late attempt to rescue a point coming out of desperation (xG: TOT 0.7 - 1.9 CHE). Spurs were once again too passive in that game, and with the pressure now mounting on Jose Mourinho, the Portuguese needs a result against West Brom. Spurs created 2.9 xG against Leeds and Fulham recently, and they'll need to deliver a similar display against the struggling Baggies.
Sam Allardyce has arguably made no impact since his appointment at the Hawthorns, with West Brom's underlying numbers (0.8 xGF and 2.1 xGA pg) still suggesting relegation beckons. Consequently, this is the perfect opportunity for Tottenham to bounce back from their string of underwhelming defeats. Son should relish this challenge and he should ensure that it's a busy afternoon for Sam Johnstone in goal for West Brom.
Gabriel Jesus to make the difference at Anfield
Liverpool vs Man City
Sunday, 16:30
Goalscorer: Gabriel Jesus to score anytime @ 6/4
Sergio Aguero has hardly played for Manchester City this season, accumulating a measly 0.76 xG, and this has exacerbated their problems in attack. While Gabriel Jesus's credentials to permanently replace the almighty void that Aguero's absence creates are questionable, the Brazilian has stepped up in recent weeks.
Jesus has now scored in consecutive games, opening the scoring in City's last two fixtures. His goal tally of four goals (3.7 xG) is modest, but with Pep Guardiola's now side reaching the lofty heights of season's past, he should receive adequate service at Anfield, and he seems the most likely scorer for the visitors.
Carded: Georginio Wijnaldum to be booked @ 7/2
Gini Wijnaldum is one of Jurgen Klopp's most trusted lieutenants at Liverpool, with the Dutchman offering the champions a reassuring presence in the centre of their midfield. He'll be tasked with dealing with Manchester City's dynamic midfield on Sunday, which won't be easy considering their rivals' glittering form. Liverpool could potentially lose this game in the engine room and it wouldn't be a surprise to see Wijnaldum receive a caution for a tactical foul. Only two players at Liverpool have received more yellow cards than Wijnaldum (3) this campaign, so the 7/2 is another generously priced booking play.
Same Game Multi: Under 2.5 goals and under 9.5 corners @ 4.2016/5
After two strong performances against Tottenham and West Ham, Liverpool slumped to a crushing home defeat to Brighton (xG: LIV 0.9 - 1.4 BRI). Their air of invincibility has gradually deteriorated, with their title defence now looking increasingly unlikely.
To make matters worse, Manchester City are recording electric numbers, averaging 2.3 xGF and 0.5 xGA per game across their last ten fixtures.
Pep Guardiola's sides remarkable transformation in defence has been a pleasure to watch, and City have conceded just 13 goals this term. That is outstanding, and with Liverpool stuttering, they should be able to limit the Reds' sights on goal.
When these two sides last met, the game ended 1-1, with neither side fashioning any significant opportunities (xG: MCI 1.5 - 1.2 LIV). I'm expecting another dull game here, as both teams will be wary of the potential implications a defeat could have.
