Premier League Tipsheet: Six of the best for Saturday

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Ten Hag has reinstalled structure and belief at Old Trafford

Ste Tudor highlights where the goals and three points will likely be found to get this weekend started...

  • United to gain bragging rights

  • Judgement Day for the Toffees

  • Brentford to extend fine form


Man United v Man City (12:30) - Revenge for Reds

For the first time in a long time United go into a derby as the team to back, having lost just one of their previous 18 fixtures, and conceding just the once from their six commitments post-World Cup.

Marcus Rashford has scored eight in eight, Casemiro is running the shows, and there is a structure, belief, and confidence prevalent not seen since David Cameron was Prime Minister and One Direction were still a thing.

Their impressive run originates from a 6-3 humbling at City but that was a very different Pep Guardiola creation to the one presently experiencing an identity crisis. Key players in Kevin De Bruyne and Joao Cancelo are a facsimile of a shadow of their usual selves and the poor performances are beginning to outweigh the good.

Look out for Rodri and his newly-mined temper. The Spanish midfielder has been booked in three of this last five starts, two of them for responding poorly to being fouled.

A bet builder backing United to win and Rodri to be carded offers up

11/1

Brighton v Liverpool (15:00) - Home and away

Liverpool's away record this term is nothing to write home about, amounting to just 28.6% of their points share. That's the lowest ratio in the top-flight. Brighton, however, have only won one from their previous five at the Amex.

With Virgil Van Dijk missing, it's tempting to suspect Jurgen Klopp's men may struggle against a side that has racked up 2.8 goals per 90 from their last six outings. It's worth acknowledging though, the Reds are unbeaten from the last 14 times they've been deprived of their Dutch colossus.

Win or lose, Liverpool always accrue a high shot-count so that's a consideration, as too is the form of Brighton's Kaoru Mitoma who could this weekend become the first Japanese player to score in three consecutive Premier League games.

A bet builder backing Mitoma to score anytime and the visitors to have 6 or more shots on target is a shout @

8/1

Everton v Southampton (15:00) - Judgement day

So it comes to this.

A tumultuous first half to their campaign has seen the Toffees post just three wins, and factoring in all manner of insipid and unadventurous displays it has resulted in Frank Lampard's position coming under serious scrutiny. Indeed, the former England international is odds-on favourite to be the next top-flight gaffer to leave their club.

His failings, along with his team's aspirations to mediocrity, have brought them to this crux clash with fellow relegation-battlers Southampton, and given the gravity of the situation it's unfortunate they must strive minus their best source of creativity, Alex Iwobi. The Saints beating Manchester City midweek, thereby gaining some much-needed confidence, is hardly a positive omen either.

For all concerned it will be tight and tense at Goodison, and with both sides combined scoring fewer goals this season than Fulham or Brentford, a goal-fest would surprise.

Under 1.5 goals is well worth a punt @

21/10

Nottingham Forest v Leicester (15:00) - Scant set-pieces

They may be only three games in, but Forest will take strength from being unbeaten so far in 2023. Leicester, by stark comparison, have lost three on the bounce in the league, a mini-slump that sees them level on points with the ever-improving Tricky Trees.

Both teams have numerous injuries to contend with, though there is a possibility of James Maddison featuring from the bench, and his ingenuity has been desperately missed by the visitors. Prior to his lay-off, the 26-year-old was averaging 2.4 key passes per 90.

The Foxes blasted four past Forest in the corresponding tie at the King Power but circumstances were very different back in October, as evidenced by an unusually high corner count that evening for both. Forest are rock-bottom, and Leicester are second to bottom, for corners won in 2022/23.

Under 8.5 corners is decent value @

7/4

Wolves v West Ham (15:00) - End product at last

It was merely a tap-in from Raul Jiminez. At the far post from about three yards out.

Yet for Wolves, their fit-again striker's equaliser against Forest in the Carabao Cup midweek was a significant moment, because all season long they haven't had anyone finishing off their chances. Even the easy ones.

A negligible 4.4% chance conversion rate has resulted in Wolves scoring the second fewest number of goals in the top seven tiers of the footballing pyramid but with the Mexican's return that might soon change. Decent showings from Hwang Lee-Chan of late is also a plus.

The Hammers have only won once on the road all season and have similar issues up front. The key difference though - and one that will likely determine the outcome of this bottom-six meeting - is that the hosts are improving week-on-week under new boss Julen Lopetegui. West Ham are stagnating.

Wolves to win by exactly two goals is tempting @

7/1

Brentford v Bournemouth (17:30) - Bees buzz on

With or without Ivan Toney, the Bees have been ruthlessly clinical in recent weeks, scoring from a quarter of their attempts on goal since the league's resumption. With their arch-poacher set to return on Saturday evening, that is all-the-more reason to believe Bournemouth are in for a tough time of it.

This is especially pertinent given that the Cherries have unquestionably slumped back into defensive disorder, conceding every 37 minutes since the restart, and a terrible away record - the joint-worst in the top-flight - suggests Brentford's six-game unbeaten run will be extended here.

The hosts incidentally have scored six of their last nine before the break.

Roll the dice on Brentford/Brentford @

6/4

Stephen Tudor

Stephen Tudor has written extensively about football and sports betting for well over a decade.

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