Premier League Correct Score Tips: Infogol's predictions for every match of GW30

Leeds to edge Cottagers

Fulham v Leeds
Friday, 20:00

Fulham were beaten by Manchester City last weekend, though that was the first game in which they had been well-beaten. They have struggled at home all season long, winning just two of 15, with those victories coming against West Brom and Sheffield United, and it isn't a surprise when looking at their home xG process (1.04 xGF, 1.62 xGA pg).

Leeds may have been struggling for results of late (1W in five), but performances have been good. They created 2.7 xG in defeat at Wolves and 1.5 at West Ham so are creating chances, and they have a stellar record against the leagues bottom sides. The visitors can edge to a win here, though given 69% of Fulham's games have gone Under 2.5 this season, we could be set for a low-scoring win - 0-1.

Back the 0-1 @ 11.010/1

Seagulls to pull further clear

Brighton v Newcastle
Saturday, 20:00

Brighton's battle with xG has been well-documented, with the Seagulls fifth bottom of the table but occupying fifth spot in Infogol's xG table. Their home form has been poor based on results (1W), but only Manchester City have racked up more expected points per home game this term. Defensively, only Chelsea have been better over the last 10 games, with Potter's side allowing just 0.75 xGA per game. If it all clicks, they should pull well clear of the drop.

Newcastle are in trouble, and this is a huge game in their season. They stole a late point against Aston Villa last weekend, creating just 0.5 xG heading into injury time. Callum Wilson, Allan Saint-Maximin and Miguel Almiron are all expected to be absent here, which is a huge blow to an already toothless attack. Brighton are taken to win (56%), though it is unlikely to be a blowout (52% U2.5) - 2-0.

Back the 2-0 @ 8.07/1

All square at London Stadium

West Ham v Arsenal
Sunday, 15:00

West Ham were really poor at Old Trafford last weekend, setting up in a negative manner and it backfired. They return to the London Stadium having won five of their last six at home, with their xG process very promising (1.6 xGF, 1.3 xGA pg).

Arsenal somehow lost to Olympiakos in midweek despite racking up the chances once again, with their attacking process really improving. They have averaged 1.9 xGF per game over their last five league games, losing the xG battle only once (v Man City), but defensively, question marks remain (1.3 xGA pg). A tight game is expected here, with a 54% chance of BTTS, though I can't split these two - 1-1.

Back the 1-1 @ 7.413/2

Spurs to scrape a draw

Aston Villa v Tottenham
Sunday, 19:15

Aston Villa were denied a win last week by a late Newcastle goal, with their process returning to average since the absence of Jack Grealish. He is obviously a key player that has been greatly missed, with only Kevin De Bruyne averaging more xAssists than the Englishmen in the Premier League this term. If he is back, Villa will fancy their chances, especially as their defence continues to look strong.

Tottenham crashed out of the Europa League on Thursday, going down 3-0 in Zagreb, with players and managers labelling the performance a disgrace. They were right. And it followed another disgraceful performance in the North London derby, where they only decided it was time to attack with 10 minutes left being 2-1 down. Spurs' away xG process in the league this term has been very poor (1.4 xGF, 1.5 xGA pg), but they can scrape a point here with both teams netting (55%) - 1-1.

Back the 1-1 @ 7.06/1