Premier League Acca Builder: Liverpool and Utd to draw

Lingard may find space in open contest

Everton v Nottingham Forest
Saturday, 15:00

Forest's winning start last weekend was somewhat fortunate. West Ham couldn't quite capitalise on the huge space the hosts had opened up between the lines as a consequence of deploying such a direct style (or perhaps simply as a result of having so many new players).

Judging by their first couple of games, Steve Cooper will be relying on a long-ball game more than most; they have a pass completion rate of just 67.8%.

Everton are equally open, as they always have been under Frank Lampard. He does not seem capable of designing a system that stays compact despite seemingly deciding to give up on his attacking beliefs, signing Conor Coady to move permanently to a 5-4-1 formation. Aston Villa walked through midfield multiple times last weekend, including for both goals.

Consequently this is likely to be a game with plenty of chances and an old-school feel. Two teams poor at (or disinterested in) pressing mixed with direct football should be highly entertaining, with the most likely hero Jesse Lingard; the number ten in Cooper's 3-4-1-2 can roam where he pleases, popping up in space on the blind side of Everton's erratic two-man midfield.

Back over 2.5 goals at 2.01/1

Eze & Zaha to get behind Villa eights

Crystal Palace v Aston Villa
Saturday, 15:00

Steven Gerrard likes to play a possession game with a relatively high defensive line, which happens to play into Crystal Palace's hands. Patrick Vieira's side are at their best when allowed to concede territory and spring counter-attacks, hence their excellent performance at Anfield, where Eberichi Eze and Wilfried Zaha found a way to break through Liverpool's high line.

Liverpool's problem was having two eights, Harvey Elliot and James Milner, get caught ahead of the play. Villa, in a diamond 4-4-2, will face a similar problem because John McGinn and Jacob Ramsey can struggle to shift out wide quickly enough to fill the gaps behind Gerrard's attacking full-backs.

It is a particular issue down Villa's right, where Matty Cash will pour forward as Zaha roams out to join Eze.

Villa need to avoid being lured into the trap, but Gerrard's focus on slowly building out from the back is likely to lead to their downfall here. It will be very difficult, too, for such a narrow diamond -led by Emiliano Buendia - to pick holes in Palace's well-organised blockade.

Back Palace to win at 2.56/4

Howe goes too deep and narrow to cope

Newcastle v Man City
Sunday, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports Premier League

Eddie Howe got his tactics all wrong in a 4-0 defeat to Manchester City last season. Newcastle were beaten 5-0 in May because Howe's shape was far too narrow and deep, meaning his 4-5-1 essentially sat passively and watched as Pep Guardiola's attackers pulled them apart. More specifically, Jack Grealish dominated things from wide on the left, forcing the Magpies even further back.

This is likely to happen again on Sunday as a consequence of Erling Haaland's presence. He is already terrifying defenders and creating more space for his team-mates as opponents fearfully retreat into a low block in order to deny him space on the shoulder.

What's more, his movement in the penalty area is pulling defenders away from team-mates, indirectly creating two of the goals in the 4-0 win over Bournemouth last weekend.

It is hard to imagine a different scenario on Sunday. Howe will want Joelinton to be the link man for counter-attacks played in the dribble, and will hope Allan Saint-Maximin can be released down the left wing behind Kyle Walker.

But Man City are just too strong and too dominant now that Haaland is pushing the opponents too deep to launch a break.

Back Man City to win with a -2 handicap at 3.613/5

Martial return to give Liverpool a headache

Man Utd v Liverpool
Monday, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Premier League

The obvious tactical analysis of this game is that David de Gea will come under pressure as Liverpool race out of the blocks to repeat the man-to-man pressing system deployed by Brentford and Brighton, leading to another low-confidence collapse at Old Trafford.

There is certainly a high probability of Liverpool simply blowing Man Utd away, as they did in 5-0 and 4-0 wins last season; they are sharper, and more coherent in every department.

But if Erik ten Hag has perhaps moved too quickly in trying to implement Ajax tactics, he will be forced into a pattern of play on Monday night that might suit these players better. Sitting deeper and needing to play on the counter through necessity, some of their old instincts could kick in, while the return of Anthony Martial provides a huge boost; in pre-season, he combined brilliantly with Marcus Rashford and Jadon Sancho to create a fast and fluid counter-attacking trio.

Darwin Nunez's absence and injuries to Roberto Firmino and Diogo Jota also have the potential to unsettle Liverpool's usual rhythm, while Thiago Alcantara's absence leaves them slower and less precise in central midfield.

Put all that together, and it starts to look as though the Ten Hag era could finally get going via some rapid transitions that emulate Palace's method at Anfield.

Back the draw at 4.216/5