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Time for Norn to kick on
Northern Ireland will be hoping for a better Nations League campaign this season, now that they are in the calmer waters of League C, following their relegation last time. They finished bottom of their group, taking just two points from six fixtures against Austria, Norway and Romania.
Ian Baraclough's side performed much better in World Cup Qualifying though, finishing third behind Switzerland and Italy - winning two and losing three of their eight outings.
They are drawn in Group 2 of League C, against Cyprus, Kosovo and Greece, with the latter being the strongest of the three.
Baraclough will be hoping that his side can return to action with a win, and lay down an early marker, and he has included four uncapped players. He has also recalled the likes of Kyle Lafferty and Conor Washington, who had been absent recently.
A new era for Greece
Greece also finished third in their World Cup Qualifying Group, taking 10 points from their eight games against Spain, Sweden, Georgia and Kosovo.
In the last Nations League tournament they finished as runners-up to Slovenia in Group 3 of League C, and they will be aiming to go one better this time around.
They have a new man in charge since all that happened though, with Gus Poyet replacing John van 't Schip in February 2022.
The former Chelsea man has overseen two friendly games thus far - a 1-0 victory over Romania and a 1-0 defeat to Montenegro. They are a young squad though, with just one outfield player of 30, so one would imagine that Poyet will be given some time to build something.
Hard to separate the two group favourites
The visitors are the 2.68/5 favourites to win this match, which feels a little bit short to me. After a bit of a sticky spell when Baraclough replaced Michael O'Neill, Norn have lost just four of their last 12, and they are unbeaten in five, in competitive matches at Windsor Park.
Greece certainly aren't one to put your faith in at 2.68/5, but I am not overly keen on the hosts at 3.3512/5 either. I would say that it's a fair price, just not one that needs backing.
Of those five unbeaten games at home, only one of them was a win, and that was against Lithuania. The rest were draws, with three of them being goalless.
Based on that, and the fact that a point apiece wouldn't be the worst result in the world for either side, I am going to recommend backing the draw at 3.185/40.
Low-scoring trend to continue
It comes as no surprise that Under 2.5 Goals is the heavy favourite in a Northern Ireland international, and even a price of 1.51/2 on the Betfair Exchange doesn't feel too short.
It has landed in 11 of their last 13 in front of their own fans, and it's not like the Greeks are a high-scoring team either.
Both of Poyet's matches finished with just a single goal, and seven of their last eight have seen Under 2.5 backers collect. In the last Nations League, five of their six had two goals or fewer.
I am not going to tip a 1.51/2 shot, but I wouldn't put you off including it in a Bet Builder, and I certainly don't think that there is any value in Over 2.5 at 2.89/5.
Bet Builder
Just a small Bet Builder for me on this game over on the Sportsbook, and I have already outlined my case for the three selections.
You can get Under 2.5 Goals, Northern Ireland to Win or Draw and 0-0 at Half Time at odds of 9/4, and I think that is a very likely scenario.
Recommended bets
2021/22 P/L (1pt each bet)
Wagered: 53pts
Returned: 41.01pts
P/L: -11.99pts