Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides La Liga result and scoreline predictions as the title race goes right to the wire...
Levante to climb above Cádiz
Two out-of-form but safe teams meet on Friday night, with both coming off defeats in game week 37, but Levante have the carrot of being able to pip their opponents on their head-to-head record with a win. Cádiz have averaged 2.36 xGA across their last six games, including a home defeat to relegation-threatened Elche, and Infogol anticipates a third straight loss to end the season.
Betis to clinch top-six finish
Celta have been flying of late, ending Barcelona's top-two hopes with a comeback win at Camp Nou for which they rode their luck a little bit, but even a victory at Balaídos wouldn't be enough to catch Betis. The visitors know they can guarantee Europa League football with a win, and Infogol's model sees Manuel Pellegrini's men edging a close game between the two top-half sides.
Barça to ensure Eibar finish bottom
Eibar are the only team already relegated from La Liga, thanks to their inferior head-to-head record against their rivals, and the fixture list meant things were always likely to be tricky. Barcelona were held by José Luis Mendilibar's team at Camp Nou in December, but a league-best return of 2.13 xGF away from home points to a likely away win for Ronald Koeman's side.
Elche to fall at final hurdle
Elche kept their survival hopes alive with a win in Cádiz last weekend, but the team with the worst home xGA record in the division will need to buck that trend to have any hope of survival. While three of Fran Escribá's four wins as manager have come at Martínez Valero, Infogol's model still gives the upper hand to an Athletic side which recently showed its mettle on the road by winning at Sevilla.
Huesca to clinch survival at the last
Pacheta has done well to give Huesca control over their own fate, considering they had just one win before he arrived as manager in mid-January, but it won't count for much if his team fails to complete the job. Fortunately for last season's Segunda División champions, Infogol expects them to get the better of a Valencia side with no victories in their last nine away games.
Real Sociedad to claim fifth place
Four wins from the last six leave La Real in pole position to finish fifth, and they can guarantee this with a win at El Sadar. Opponents Osasuna almost snuck a point away to Atlético Madrid last time out, but an average of 1.74 xGA across their last six games suggests Jagoba Arrasate's men will likely give their opponents plenty of sights of goal over the course of 90 minutes.
Real Madrid to do their bit in pursuit of title
With a two-point gap to league-leaders Atléti, Real Madrid can do no more than win and hope. They're up against a Villarreal side who may have half an eye on the upcoming Europa League final, though three wins from four have kept their top-six push alive, and Zinedine Zidane - in what some have speculated might be his last game at the helm - will be desperate to go one better than the 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture.
Atlético Madrid to get the job done
Atléti left it very late to beat Osasuna last weekend, but the underlying numbers point to a team capable of creating big chances when they need to. They'll need a repeat at José Zorrilla, where a Valladolid side in need of a win for any chance of survival may leave gaps at the back, and Infogol backs Diego Simeone's men to do the business and relegate their opponents in the process.
Getafe to end season with back-to-back wins
After clinching their safety last weekend, Getafe have the pressure off them as they travel to Nuevo Los Cármenes. Hosts Granada have lost their last four, averaging 1.92 xGA in the process, putting a top-half finish at risk. The reverse fixture was decided by a single goal from the penalty spot, and Infogol's model doesn't expect there to be much in the way of goalmouth action this time either.
Sevilla to see off Alavés
Despite a surprise 4-0 reverse at Villarreal last weekend, Sevilla still have a chance to catch third-place Barcelona in the final standings. Opponents Alavés are safe as a result of back-to-back wins, ensuring Joselu's late penalty miss in the reverse fixture hasn't ended up haunting them, but Infogol's model makes Sevilla firm favourites to complete a league double over Javier Calleja's side.