Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides La Liga result and scoreline predictions ahead of a huge Clásico...
"The result of Saturday's Clásico could go a long way to determining who wins La Liga this season, and Infogol's model backs the home side to follow their win over Liverpool in Europe with three points in the capital."
Huesca to cling on to safety hopes
After defying the odds to win at Levante last weekend, Huesca have a golden chance to end a gameweek outside the bottom three for the first time in 2021. Infogol gives Pacheta's team the edge against an Elche side just one place ahead of them in the table, with the visitors average of 1.88 xGA per away game not boding especially well for the relegation battlers.
Getafe to scrape past Cádiz
Two of La Liga's lower-scoring teams meet at the Coliseum, with both averaging less than one goal per game and only the visitors averaging more than one in expected terms. A victory for the home side would help them extend their current six-point buffer over the bottom three, and an average of 0.91 xGA per home game is a positive sign for Pepe Bordalás' men.
Athletic to rebound from cup disappointment
After losing the delayed 2020 Copa Del Rey final last weekend and drawing with cup vanquishers Real Sociedad in midweek, Athletic will be keen to notch a first win in five league games as they welcome Alavés to San Mamés. The struggling away side have one of the league's worst records on the road, suggesting the team from Bilbao can claim three points and avenge their defeat in the reverse fixture.
Eibar to keep survival hopes alive
With the two teams directly above them facing off on Friday, Eibar will know how crucial a win could be by the time they host Levante nearly 24 tours later. José Luis Mendilibar's team took the lead in the reverse fixture before falling to a defeat, and Infogol's model backs them to snap a 12-game winless streak and claim a valuable three points in their battle against the drop.
Madrid to triumph in season-defining Clásico
The result of Saturday's Clásico could go a long way to determining who wins La Liga this season, and Infogol's model backs the home side to follow their win over Liverpool in Europe with three points in the capital. Both teams are on long unbeaten runs, but the champions are tipped to make it three league wins on the spin against their great rivals.
Villarreal to continue late-season revival
Villarreal's recent run of wins has left them with every chance of claiming the 'best of the rest' title with a fifth place finish, and a home meeting with Osasuna will allow them to continue that form. No other La Liga side can better the 0.86 home xGA averaged by Unai Emery's men, and Infogol's model expects them to keep another opponent off the scoresheet.
La Real to keep unbeaten run going
Having claimed their place as 2020 Copa Del Rey champions with victory in the delayed final, Real Sociedad now have fifth place on their mind. They take on a Valencia side which has struggled for goals at home and away this term, though the 1.53 xGA average might be the bigger concern for Javi Gracia's men ahead of a potentially tight contest.
Valladolid to give themselves breathing room in relegation fight
After coming ever so close to a surprise point at Camp Nou, Valladolid have to get right back to work at José Zorrilla on Sunday. Infogol makes the hosts slight favourites against a Granada side coming off back-to-back league reverses - including a dismal defensive display at home to Villarreal - with the away side's league-worst record on the road giving Sergio González's men some hope.
Atléti to grind out victory over in-form opponents
There's no longer any margin for error as far as Atlético Madrid's title pursuit is concerned, with Diego Simeone's side in danger of being knocked off the top of the table for the first time since December. Opponents Real Betis have averaged 1.93 xGF across their last six games, earning 13 points in the process, but Infogol gives the visitors a narrow edge in a game which could go either way.
Sevilla to make it 13 points from 15
After last week's win over Atléti, Sevilla can maintain their healthy cushion over fifth place by claiming the points at Balaídos. Infogol makes Julen Lopetegui's side slight favourites, having put four past Celta back in November, though their opponents' mid-season resurgence suggests we might not have a repeat of the high-scoring affair we witnessed before the turn of the year.