La Liga Correct Score Predictor with Infogol: Tips for every fixture of GW28

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Barcelona's Jordi Alba has scored against Real Sociedad in two of the last three seasons

"Barcelona have La Liga's best away xGA return of just 0.93 per game, but if anyone can hand them a fourth road defeat of the season it's a Real Sociedad side averaging 2.29 xGF per home game - a record only bested by Barça themselves."

Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides La Liga result and scoreline predictions as the title race hots up...

Betis to keep their top-six spot

Real Betis v Levante
Friday, 20:00
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Real Betis remain in good shape despite their narrow defeat in last week's derby, and will be after revenge after conceding four to Levante in the reverse fixture. Infogol's model gives the hosts a 52% chance of victory - a result which would represent a third straight win at Benito Villamarín and ensure a return of 26 points from the 12 games since that December defeat away to Friday night's opponents.

Back the 2-1 @ 9.4017/2

Athletic to increase Eibar's relegation worries

Athletic Bilbao v Eibar
Saturday, 13:00
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Back-to-back defeats have left Eibar in serious trouble, and the defensive frailties on show against Villarreal last weekend will be hugely concerning to manager José Luis Mendilibar. The strugglers have a higher xGF than their opponents, but their return of 0.78 actual goals per game is the joint-worst in La Liga and explains their lowly position. Infogol backs the hosts, as Mendilibar's men are running out of games to clamber out of the bottom three.

Back the 2-0 @ 8.6015/2

Madrid to keep their momentum going

Celta Vigo v Real Madrid
Saturday, 15:15
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Real Madrid were the side who punctured Eduardo Coudet's six-game unbeaten run early in his spell at Celta, and the Argentine will hope history doesn't repeat itself as he welcomes the champions to Balaídos after just one defeat in eight. The tricky part is the visitors' form, with Madrid putting in one of their more accomplished performances of the season to brush aside Atalanta in Europe, and Infogol's model anticipates another win for Zinedine Zidane's men.

Back the 0-2 @ 9.6017/2

Huesca to reignite survival bid

Huesca v Osasuna
Saturday, 17:30
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Huesca might have shipped four goals in each of their last two games, but the xG balance had them on top against both Celta and, interestingly, title challengers Barcelona. While Pacheta's team will know the results are more important than the performances right now given their position at the foot of the table, they can take some positives into a meeting with Osasuna for which Infogol makes them narrow favourites, knowing three points could lift them to within just one of safety.

Back the 2-1 @ 11.0010/1

Sevilla to end Valladolid's mini-revival

Real Valladolid v Sevilla
Saturday, 20:00
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A run of five points from three games has kept Valladolid out of immediate danger, with an average xGA of 0.95 across the meetings with Celta, Getafe and Osasuna also cause for optimism. However, they face a tougher task with the visit of Sevilla to José Zorrilla. Julen Lopetegui's team still have work to do to make sure of fourth place, and Infogol's model backs them to continue their record of not losing to Pucela since Sergio González's team returned to la Liga in 2018.

Back the 0-2 @ 8.808/1

Getafe to give themselves some breathing room

Getafe v Elche
Sunday, 13:00
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The two teams with La Liga's worst xGF averages meet at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez, and Infogol backs Getafe to take the spoils and extend the gap between them and the bottom three. Visitors Elche have lost eight of their last nine on the road, and also laid the foundations for Pepe Bordalás' side's biggest away win of the campaign in January. Don't expect a high-scoring game, though, with just a 36% chance of more than 2.5 goals.

Back the 2-0 @ 7.4013/2

Valencia to continue march towards mid-table

Valencia v Granada
Sunday, 15:15
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Valencia's home form has helped them keep their heads above water this term, with a better return in terms of xGF, goals scored and points compared to the games played away from the Mestalla. This weekend's visitors, Granada, can boast a league-worst 2.28 xGA away from home, contributing to the division's worst points tally on the road, and three points for the hosts can help take them to the comfort of mid-table.

Back the 2-0 @ 10.009/1

Villarreal to end home frustrations

Villarreal v Cádiz
Sunday, 15:15
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Despite going four home games without a win, Villarreal's performances at El Madrigal haven't tailed off nearly as much as that might suggest. They have a chance to set things right against a Cádiz side who held them to a goalless draw in October, and Infogol expects Unai Emery's team to take the points and remain in top six contention in a season which once threatened to deliver a lot more.

Back the 3-0 @ 9.6017/2

Atléti to preserve lead at the summit

Atlético Madrid v Alavés
Sunday, 17:30
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With Barcelona and Real Madrid chipping away at Atlético's lead at the top of the table, a home meeting with struggling Alavés should be just what the doctor ordered for Diego Simeone. Abelardo's visitors are averaging just 1.04 xGF per game on the road, part of the reason why Infogol anticipates a home win, but Simeone's men will be wary of the fact that it took until the final minute for them to clinch victory in the reverse fixture at Mendizorrotza.

Back the 2-0 @ 5.409/2

La Real to hold up Barça title charge

Real Sociedad v Barcelona
Sunday, 20:00
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Barcelona have La Liga's best away xGA return of just 0.93 per game, but if anyone can hand them a fourth road defeat of the season it's a Real Sociedad side averaging 2.29 xGF per home game - a record only bested by Barça themselves. La Real recorded a frightening 5.67 xGF in their last home match, albeit with only one actual goal to show from it, and Infogol gives the two sides an equal chance of victory at Anoeta.

Back the 2-1 @ 13.0012/1

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Recommended bets

Real Betis v Levante: Back the 2-1 @ 9.4017/2
Real Valladolid v Sevilla: Back the 0-2 @ 8.808/1
Villarreal v Cádiz: Back the 3-0 @ 9.6017/2

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