Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides La Liga result and scoreline predictions as Real Madrid aim to rebound from a shock cup exit...
Levante to pick up the points against Valladolid
After both Levante and Valladolid failed to claim all three points against promoted sides in new week, home advantage could well be the difference between the sides at Ciutat de Valencia. Infogol makes the hosts 45% favourites, with their 15 points from eight home games so far offering reassurance against opponents averaging just 0.87 xGF per game away from home.
Back the 2-0 @ 11.5021/2
Villarreal to leave Huesca in deep trouble
Huesca haven't had the rub of the green lately, most recently losing a tight and reasonably even meeting with Getafe thanks to Mauro Arambarri's second-half strike. The worrying thing for Pacheta's team is the games aren't getting easier, and an in-form Villarreal can rebound from conceding a spectacular Kenedy equaliser against Granada - a game they dominated in xG terms - to sneak a victory at El Alcoraz.
Back the 1-2 @ 9.208/1
Home win to keep Sevilla in top four contention
Sevilla were fortunate to get the better of Alavés in midweek, with Joselu failing to convert a late penalty which would have brought the hosts a draw at Mendizorrotza, but they will be confident of a home victory against Cádiz despite the visitors' stickiness on the road. Álvaro Cervera's team haven't lost in the league since before Christmas, but an average of 0.84 xGF away from home could hold them back.
Back the 2-0 @ 6.4011/2
Real Sociedad to earn first league win of 2021
Real Betis have won their last four in all competitions, but a trip to Anoeta looks likely to put an end to that run. Imanol Alguacil's team bounced back from a tricky patch of league form by beating Córdoba in the Copa del Rey, and Infogol's model gives them a 52% chance of repeating last season's victory over Los Verdiblancos and staying in top four contention.
Back the 2-1 @ 9.008/1
Madrid to get revenge against Alavés
Alavés handed Real Madrid one of their three defeats this season with a shock win in the capital, but Zinedine Zidane will be worried about following cup humiliation against third-tier Alcoyano with another league setback. Infogol suggests the champions should have no trouble, with a 61% chance of victory in what is expected to be a low-scoring game, but Zidane's men have suffered a number of surprising results this term.
Back the 0-2 @ 7.6013/2
Osasuna to move closer to safety
Osasuna face the bizarre prospect of a second game against Granada in the space of less than two weeks, but Jagoba Arrasate's men were unfortunate to fall to a 2-0 loss at Nuevo Los Cármenes and will fancy their chances back at El Sadar. The visitors are averaging 2.47 xGA away from home, and the hosts be looking a lot healthier by Monday morning if results here and elsewhere go their way.
Back the 2-0 @ 11.5021/2
Barça to continue resurgence without Messi
Barcelona will be without the suspended Lionel Messi for their trip to Elche, after the Argentine earned the first club red card of his career in the Supercopa, but the strugglers' home form will mean Ronald Koeman can still expect three points. Elche have won just once at Martínez Valero since promotion, averaging 0.86 xGF at home, and Infogol backs the visitors even without their talisman.
Back the 1-2 @ 8.6015/2
Celta to bring losing run to an end
Celta have lost their last four games, including a surprise cup exit at the hands of Ibiza earlier this month, but remain in mid-table and have a chance to return to the top half with a win at Balaídos. Opponents Eibar are tough to beat on the road, winning as many as they have lost, but Eduardo Coudet's hosts are slight favourites to go one better than the goalless draw at Ipurua on the opening day of the season.
Back the 2-1 @ 9.6017/2
Atléti to overpower Valencia at home
Valencia have improved results of late to ease any immediate relegation worries, but a trip to the Wanda Metropolitano is unlikely to give them an opportunity to increase the gap to those below them. Hosts Atléti rode their luck to beat Sevilla in their last home game, but eight wins from nine at home make Diego Simeone's side clear favourites with Infogol's model.
Back the 2-0 @ 6.4011/2
Athletic to edge game of few chances at San Mamés
Last Sunday's Supercopa win over Barcelona was a bit of an outlier for Athletic, if only for representing just the second time since June that they have scored more than twice in the same game, and a home meeting with Getafe could well see a return to the more frequent low-scoring football we've become used to. The hosts average 1.13 xGF per game this term, with the visitors even lower than that, but Infogol's model gives Marcelino's men a slight edge.
Back the 2-0 @ 10.009/1
Levante v Real Valladolid: Back the 2-0 @ 11.5021/2
Huesca v Valladolid: Back the 1-2 @ 9.208/1
Sevilla v Cádiz: Back the 2-0 @ 6.4011/2
Real Sociedad v Real Betis: Back the 2-1 @ 9.008/1
Alavés v Real Madrid: Back the 0-2 @ 7.6013/2
Osasuna v Granada: Back the 2-0 @ 11.5021/2
Elche v Barcelona: Back the 1-2 @ 8.6015/2
Celta Vigo v Eibar: Back the 2-1 @ 9.6017/2
Atlético Madrid v Valencia: Back the 2-0 @ 6.4011/2
Athletic Bilbao v Getafe: Back the 2-0 @ 10.009/1