Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides La Liga result and scoreline predictions as Atlético Madrid v Barcelona headlines the schedule...
"Real Madrid's opponents on Saturday sit ahead them in the league, albeit having played an extra game, and would at least temporarily go top with a win."
Osasuna to return to winning ways
After back-to-back games against teams from last season's top four, Osasuna have a more winnable proposiion at home to Huesca. The visitors would likely be higher in the table with better finishing, having created plenty at home especially, but Infogol's model expects them to fall short at El Sadar.
Back the 2-0 @ 13.0012/1
Levante to break out of recent rut
A long winless run has seen Levante drop into the bottom three, but Paco López's side have shown signs of improvement in draws against Alavés and Granada. Infogol's model gives them a 51% chance of picking up a first win in seven as Elche come to Ciutat de Valencia, not quite enough to catch up to Saturday's opponents, with both teams expected to find the net.
Back the 2-1 @ 8.808/1
Champions to burst Villarreal's bubble
Real Madrid's opponents on Saturday sit ahead them in the league, albeit having played an extra game, and would at least temporarily go top with a win. However, Zinedine Zidane will want a reaction after last weekend's 4-1 humbling by Valencia and Infogol backs the visitors to come out on top in a fixture which ended 2-2 at the start of last season.
Back the 1-2 @ 9.809/1
Sevilla to shut out Celta Vigo at home
Both of these sides are lower in the league than Infogol's xG model suggests they should be, and Sevilla have a chance to continue a climb back towards the top four during a long stretch without international interruptions. Julen Lopetegui's side have the best xGA record in the division by a distance, and should be confident of winning to nil against strugglers Celta despite the threat of new-manager bounce following Eduardo Coudet's appointment.
Back the 2-0 @ 7.807/1
Atléti to pile more misery on underwhelming Barça
Atlético Madrid's forwards had mixed fortunes during the international break, with João Félix scoring for Portugal in Croatia but Luis Suárez returning a positive Covid-19 test. However, Diego Simeone's side should have too much for an under-par Barcelona even without the Uruguayan, with Infogol's model giving them the edge in what is tipped to be a low-scoring game.
Back the 2-0 @ 17.50
Getafe to pick up first win in four
Getafe have failed to build on their win over Barcelona in October, picking up just one point from their last three games, but have a chance to set things right against a side who they beat at Ipurua last season. Eibar are yet to win at home this season, averaging just 0.72 xGF per game, and this run is unlikely to improve on Sunday according to Infogol.
Back the 0-2 @ 10.5019/2
League leaders to keep on marching
Cádiz's defensive solidity fell down away to Atlético Madrid just before the break, and the visit of league leaders Real Sociedad isn't the ideal game for them to rebound. Imanol Alguacil's visitors have won five in a row, and are averaging 1.95 xGF per game on their travels, explaining why Infogol's model gives them a 43% chance of another away win at Ramón de Carranza.
Back the 0-2 @ 9.4017/2
Granada to end Valladolid's mini-revival
Valladolid climbed off the foot of the table with a win over Athletic Bilbao last time out, but they'll be up against it against a Granada side within touching distance of the top four. Infogol's model backs a repeat of last season's outcome, where two late goals helped the hosts turn defeat into victory, but it could be more comfortable for Diego Martínez's team this time around.
Back the 2-0 @ 9.4017/2
Valencia to build on win over Real Madrid
Valencia's 4-1 victory over Real Madrid represented a big statement, and Javi Gracia will want to ensure it leads somewhere by following it up with a win at Alavés. Infogol's model makes the visitors slight favourites to improve on last season's 1-1 draw at Mendizorrotza, where the hosts have so far failed to turn steady performances into the points return they deserve.
Back the 0-2 @ 14.50
Athletic to draw level with Betis with home victory
Athletic Bilbao's position is a little deceptive, as they have been stronger at San Mamés but have only played three of their eight games on home soil. Victory over Betis on Monday will make it nine points from 12 at home and see them join their opponents in mid-table, and Infogol's model gives them a 44% chance of edging a game which ended 1-0 to the home side last term.
Back the 2-1 @ 9.6017/2
Osasuna v Huesca: Back the 2-0 @ 13.0012/1
Levante v Elche: Back the 2-1 @ 8.808/1
Villarreal v Real Madrid: Back the 1-2 @ 9.809/1
Sevilla v Celta Vigo: Back the 2-0 @ 7.807/1
Atlético Madrid v Barcelona: Back the 2-0 @ 17.50
Eibar v Getafe: Back the 0-2 @ 10.5019/2
Cádiz v Real Sociedad: Back the 0-2 @ 9.4017/2
Granada v Real Valladolid: Back the 2-0 @ 9.4017/2
Alavés v Valencia: Back the 0-2 @ 14.50
Athletic Bilbao v Real Betis: Back the 2-1 @ 9.6017/2