Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides Bundesliga result and scoreline predictions ahead of the Revierderby...
"Dortmund were forced to be patient at home to Schalke before scoring three second half goals, and Infogol's model anticipates a similar result at Veltins-Arena."
Wolfsburg to keep up unbeaten run
Arminia should be going into this game with high spirits, having taken a point from their trip to Munich last weekend, but manager Uwe Neuhaus would surely have preferred a different opponent. Wolfsburg's first win of the season came in the reverse fixture, propelling them to a run of four wins from five which has turned into a full-blown crack at the top four. The hosts are averaging just 0.74 xGF at home, and Infogol anticipates an away win.
Bayern to sneak victory in Frankfurt
Bayern Munich are one of just two teams to beat Eintracht this season, winning 5-0 back in October, and this may be the best possible time for the hosts to claim revenge. Adi Hütter's team have won eight of their last nine, and take on a Bayern side with a Champions League clash on the horizon, but Infogol's model still favours the champions to become the first visiting side to win at Deutsche Bank Park this term.
Stuttgart to recover away form
Stuttgart have nearly twice as many points away as they do at home, but have lost their last three on the road despite creating a fair amount of chances. They should have the goods to return to winning ways against a Köln side averaging 1.6 xGA at RheinEnergieStadion, with Infogol's model backing the away win while offering a 57% chance of both sides finding the net.
Freiburg to prolong Union's misery
Union Berlin continue to struggle for goals, drawing a blank against Schalke last weekend despite dominating on the xG front to make it two goals from five winless games. A trip to Freiburg isn't expected to change that, with the hosts narrow favourites to prevail based on Infogol's model. Last season's corresponding game ended 3-1 to the hosts, but we may be in for fewer goals this term.
Gladbach to return to winning ways
Gladbach take to the field for the first time since the club confirmed manager Marco Rose will join Borussia Dortmund next season, and last season's fourth place finishers have plenty of work to do in the meantime. Manchester City await in the Champions League on Wednesday, and Rose's men will want to avoid going into that game with a three-game winless run. Fortunately for them, opponents Mainz ought to be beatable, having allowed 1.99 xGA away from home, where they have won just once this season.
Dortmund to complete Revierderby double
Dortmund were forced to be patient at home to Schalke before scoring three second half goals, and Infogol's model anticipates a similar result at Veltins-Arena. Schalke have the league's worst home record, with an xGA of 1.95 per game playing its part, and Edin Terzić's side are coming off the double boost of a Champions League win in Seville and the announcement of a new manager for the 2020/21 season.
Leverkusen to keep pace with top four
Three straight defeats mean Augsburg can't relax in the relegation battle, and three could well become four against a Leverkusen side pushing to rejoin the top four after narrowly missing out last season. Peter Bosz's side have been tough to break down on the road, allowing just 1.03 xGA per game, and Augsburg's home xGA - the joint-worst in the league - should give the visitors enough opportunities to claim an important three points.
Leipzig to return to winning ways after European woe
RB Leipzig's meeting with Liverpool in midweek was closer than the 2-0 scoreline suggests, and Julian Nagelsmann's men might not need to do a great deal differently to beat a Hertha side which conceded a late penalty winner at Red Bull Arena back in October. Pál Dárdai led the side from the capital to a point last week, but Infogol gives Die Roten Bullen a 55% chance of earning a win and cementing their second place in the Bundesliga table.
Home win to take Hoffenheim above Werder
Two sides with identical points totals meet at PreZero Arena, and Hoffenheim will hope to use their home advantage to build on a good point at Dortmund last time out. The reverse fixture ended all square, but Sebastian Hoeneß will hope a season-long xGF of 1.67 per game can prevail over a similar xGA return and see the hosts justify their 55% chance of victory based on Infogol's model.