Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides Bundesliga result and scoreline predictions as a new manager enters the Schalke dugout...
"After David Wagner and Manuel Baum both failed to arrest a slide which began last season, Schalke announced Christian Gross as their third permanent manager of the campaign."
Gladbach to start the new year with a bang
After going through all of December without a win in any competition, Gladbach will be desperate to turn over a new leaf in 2021. They travel to face an Arminia side who earned a crucial win over Schalke before the Christmas break, but an average of 0.63 xGF per game at SchücoArena has been a problem for Uwe Neuhaus' side and Infogol expects the hosts to suffer a fifth home defeat in seven.
Back the 1-2 @ 8.207/1
Leverkusen to pip Frankfurt in close encounter
There is little to choose between these two sides, according to Infogol's model, though there may well be a change from last season where they exchanged home victories. Leverkusen remain in a title race despite losing to Bayern Munich last time out, and if they can produce anything close to the performances of their last three away games - which produced 10 goals in league and Europa League - they should have the edge.
Back the 1-2 @ 9.4017/2
Köln to end home misery
One of the worst home records in the Bundesliga has helped keep Köln down the bottom, but seven points from recent trips to Dortmund, Mainz and Leipzig shows they still have something about them. Visitors Augsburg have the league's worst xGF away from home, and Markus Gisdol's men will be confident of improving on last season's pair of 1-1 draws with a team who finished level with them last term.
Back the 2-1 @ 9.809/1
Hoffenheim to climb into top half
After a statement-making win at Borussia-Park before the break, Sebastian Hoeneß has a chance to lead his team back into the top half and move closer to last season's lofty finish. They take on a Freiburg side coming off three straight wins, and a run of xG dominance suggests Christian Streich's men are finding their feet after a tough start. Infogol's model anticipates goals, but the hosts are 55% to take the points.
Back the 2-1 @ 9.208/1
Union to build on impressive Dortmund victory
Union Berlin continue to defy expectations, going into 2021 just three points off the Champions League spots, and Urs Fischer's side can keep up the pressure by following up last season's 2-0 win at Weserstadion with another away win in Bremen. The visitors have held their own against last season's top two in December, and will be hopeful of continuing their momentum into the new year.
Back the 0-2 @ 13.50
Gross to begin Schalke reign with a defeat
After David Wagner and Manuel Baum both failed to arrest a slide which began last season, Schalke announced Christian Gross as their third permanent manager of the campaign. The Swiss faces a trip to the capital, where Hertha have been better than their one home win from six suggests, and Infogol's model makes the hosts favourites to prevail in a fixture which ended goalless last season.
Back the 2-1 @ 8.6015/2
Leipzig to prolong unbeaten run
Saturday night sees Leipzig attempt to get back among the goals, having drawn a blank against Köln last time out despite registering 14 shots to their opponents' two. Julian Nagelsmann's side still have the best expected goal difference in the Bundesliga, and if results go their way - with Infogol expecting them to win in Stuttgart - then they could yet end the weekend top of the table.
Back the 1-2 @ 8.808/1
Dortmund to hand Wolfsburg a second straight away defeat
Wolfsburg's unbeaten start to the campaign ended in their last away game against Bayern Munich, and they face another challenge with a trip to the Westfalenstadion. Dortmund's last home game ended in a humiliating defeat and the departure of Lucien Favre, but interim boss Edin Terzić has a chance to make a statement at home after a win and a defeat from his first two games on the road. Three second-half goals gave the hosts victory in the corresponding game last season, and Infogol's model anticipates a similar outcome.
Back the 2-1 @ 8.4015/2
Bayern to make things tough for Mainz caretaker Siewert
Jan Siewert will be in the dugout for Mainz following the exit of interim boss Jan-Moritz Lichte, and the former Huddersfield manager won't be expecting much from a trip to the Allianz Arena. Bayern put six past Sunday's opponents at the start of last season, and Infogol's model puts the champions' chances of victory at a huge 78%.
Back the 3-1 @ 12.0011/1
Arminia Bielefeld v Borussia Mönchengladbach: Back the 1-2 @ 8.207/1
Eintracht Frankfurt v Bayer Leverkusen: Back the 1-2 @ 9.4017/2
Köln v Augsburg: Back the 2-1 @ 9.809/1
Hoffenheim v Freiburg: Back the 2-1 @ 9.208/1
Werder Bremen v Union Berlin: Back the 0-2 @ 13.50
Hertha Berlin v Schalke: Back the 2-1 @ 8.6015/2
Stuttgart v RB Leipzig: Back the 1-2 @ 8.808/1
Borussia Dortmund v Wolfsburg: Back the 2-1 @ 8.4015/2
Bayern Munich v Mainz: Back the 3-1 @ 12.0011/1