-
11/102.11 for Chelsea's Palmer to return is tempting
-
Foden to carry on his excellent form in 13/102.30 punt
-
Can Watkins beat Pickford at 6/52.20?
-
Sunday brings 5/23.50 punt on Porro to outscore Bruno
-
Claim your completely free Acca or Bet Builder here!
Bet #1 - Cole Palmer to score 5 or more FPL points
The Traders have given us odds-against @ 11/102.11 for Cole Palmer to finish on 5 or more FPL points, and here's why that seems a generous offering.
Can Palmer do what he has done on eight occasions so far this season, and finish a match with 5+ FPL points? Yes, yes he can. Especially against a Fulham side who have shipped 3+ goals in four consecutive away defeats.
Some may say Palmer hasn't returned at all in nine appearances but don't forget how many of those have been from the bench. In fact, I can tell you there's only been five Premier League matches in which he has started that he hasn't hit the five point mark.
Essentially, a goal or assist would do the business here, though the one small issue with Palmer is his yellow card count. He has already missed a match through suspension, so an assist plus 60 minutes may still not be enough if he were to see yellow.
Palmer did manage 18 points last time out against Luton, though - his fourth double digit haul of the season, and he averages above five for the campaign. We are asking Chelsea's top scorer in the Premier League (with eight) to return again, and a single goal will bring us the five points we need (before any deductions). I am sure he will be a popular captain choice too, so the general expectation of FPL players will be to see Palmer return.
Bet #2 - Phil Foden to score 5 or more FPL Points
Across Phil Foden's last 10 Premier League games, he has hit the five point mark six times, including in each of his last three (12 v Sheff U, 8 v Everton & 5 v Palace). The latter of those makes for good reading too as it was a simple one assist (3) + 60 mins (2) which had him finish on five points.
Foden doesn't receive yellow cards as often as Palmer, so this bet could land with one simple assist from the player who since Christmas has created more chances from open play than any other player (9).
It is not a surprise to see Foden as the second most transferred in player this gameweek (behind Palmer) based on current form, plus the losses to the game of Son and Salah who are on international duty.
In his new #10 role Foden has started to shine once again. Bernardo is playing back on the right, Grealish or Doku on the left and because Alvarez is the main striker with no Haaland, Foden has been given the freedom he craves. His recent performances have been filled with the swagger and enjoyment of a kid playing at the park.
Seven of his 11 goals (4) or assists (3) have come in the last 10 matches, after managing only four direct goal involvements in the nine matches beforehand. Foden's form cannot be underestimated.
Newcastle is a tough place to go as we know, with the Toon Army winning all but one of their home league games this season, but they are battling with injuries - most recently to Joelinton who is out for six weeks - and City are starting to put one of their famous winning runs together.
Foden is the catalyst at the moment and, in a game where City are 1/101.10 to score a goal, Foden's price of 13/102.30 to hit five points - where a single goal or assist is likely to be enough - looks a great way to back their most in-form player.
Bet #3 - Ollie Watkins to score more FPL points than Jordan Pickford
The question you need to ask yourself is will Everton keep a clean sheet against Aston Villa? If you think not, then this could be the punt for you.
Betfair are offering you 6/52.20 for a man with nine goals and 11 assists to outscore a goalkeeper who has managed just six clean sheets in the Premier League this season - four of which came in a great but unsustainable spell. Hence the three game losing streak the Toffees are currently on in the Premier League.
Jordan Pickford (3.4) is averaging almost half the number of points per game that Ollie Watkins (6.0) is so far, and it's hard to imagine England's number one keeping out a side who have only scored fewer goals than Manchester City (45) in the top-flight in 2023-24 (43).
Pickford's highest number of points in which Everton have conceded is just two, meaning even the ability to earn save points hasn't really come to fruition for Everton's keeper this season.
In FPL, Watkins has managed 20 goal involvements, second only to Mohamed Salah (22). The England forward has got more fantasy assists (11) than any other player and an assist here would mean wiping Pickford's clean sheet points and give us a huge chance of landing a winner.
This bet would have landed in 13 of 20 Premier League games this season looking at a week-by-week comparison of their points, while Pickford has only managed more than Watkins on four MDs (three ties).
We do need Watkins to outscore Pickford - meaning a tie would be a loser here - but this has a great chance of winning looking at the head-to-head record alone.
Bet #4 - Pedro Porro to score more FPL points than Bruno Fernandes
The big one.
Can a defender outscore a midfielder? Remember, we are not talking about the must-have Bruno Fernandes of old here.
Pedro Porro (77) has nine more points than Bruno Fernandes (68) in FPL this season, despite playing three minutes less than the Man Utd skipper. In fact, 47 other players have also outscored Bruno across the season so far.
It is somewhat surprising that one of the Premier League's most creative players is so far down the list. Fewer points than Richarlison, really?
Fernandes has returned in only five matches this season with only six fantasy goals (3) or assists (3). Porro is yet to score in the league this season, but has more assists (7) than Bruno's goals plus assists (6). It makes for interesting reading.
To be fair to Bruno, he does top the tree when it comes to most chances created in the Premier League this season, so he probably feels incredibly hard done by, but that may not change - he still has the same players in front of him trying to convert his chances.
Porro meanwhile has been a breath of fresh air at Spurs this season, in a side that isn't really keeping clean sheets. Well, not many are in truth, with Liverpool, Arsenal and Newcastle all leading the way on seven clean sheets. This season's Premier League is currently leading all other seasons behind when it comes to both teams scoring and number of goals.
So defenders are being looked at for their attacking output, and no other defender can top Porro in that sense, with Kieran Trippier the only other sitting on seven goal involvements.
Porro is on set-pieces, most notably corners, and only sits behind Kulusevski and Son when it comes to chances created at Spurs (34). The Spaniard also averages 1.7 shots per 90 too, which is decent going for a defender.
These Spurs full-backs, though, aren't really there to defend, are they? Porro and Udogie are constantly marauding forward and getting into the box - only Arsenal (783) have had more touches in the opposition's penalty area than Tottenham (751) this season.
In 19 MDs where both Porro and Bruno have played, Porro has outscored Bruno on 13 occasions - that's 68% of the time. That includes in each of the last six, too, only one of which came with a Spurs clean sheet.
Bruno has also been carded four more times than Porro (7 to 3), so even if both fail to return, a yellow card for Bruno would mean another winner for Porro.
Priced at 5/23.50, which indicates a less than 30% chance of landing, we should be confident of this landing, shouldn't we?
Fancy a free Acca?
This weekend there is a compltely free Acca on offer to customers, all you need to do is opt-in here first.
You could combine all of the above selections into one bet, priced at just over 36/137.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook.
Add those selections to your betslip here in one tap!
Football... Only Bettor with Dimitar Berbatov - watch here!