Tottenham v Brighton: Spurs to sneak through

Tottenham v Brighton
Saturday 5 February, 20:00 kick-off
Live on ITV

Things looking up for Spurs

There's a lot of doom and gloom surrounding Spurs after some chastening defeats against rivals Chelsea but things aren't looking too bad at all, as a win here puts them in the quarter-final of the FA Cup, they've brought in a couple of players in the window and are just two points off the top four with two games in hand.

Antonio Conte has not been shy of voicing his concern at the lack of quality in his squad, but postponements have worked in their favour with Man Utd, West Ham and Arsenal dropping points it leaves Tottenham in decent shape to take advantage.

They'll have a clogged-up fixture list of course, and even in their recent wins they've not convinced, with three goals in the 95th, 96th and 97th minute giving them sneaky back-to-back wins at Watford and Leicester. They probably should've got just a point from those games instead of six.

Conte will take it though, and now with a couple of reinforcements it'll be interesting to see what team he puts out for the one piece of silverware they have left to play for.

Seagulls' style suits a cup run

Brighton are an intriguing prospect in the FA Cup given they've only an outside chance of Europe and look in no real relegation danger, so could easily give this a good run if Graham Potter fancies it.

They've been hard to beat all season, losing just four league games and suffering just two defeats on the road this campaign - and one of those being on penalties at Leicester - and that's the type of profile that could see them have a decent cup run.

With their scheduled league meeting in December postponed, they've not met for a year and Brighton are a tougher side to beat now, albeit draws have been flowing with goals not so prevalent.

The Seagulls have drawn four of their last six, five if you count the 90 minutes at West Brom in the FA Cup before they prevailed in extra time. They'll look to frustrate Spurs and pinch a goal somewhere, and with a full-strength side then it'd be no surprise if they did just that.

Favourites Spurs enjoy Seagulls run

Tottenham are big 1.855/6 favourites here against 4.03/1 outsiders Brighton and their run of seven straight home wins against the Seagulls certainly backs those odds up.

Spurs also won the only other FA Cup meeting between the two in 2005, while Brighton have only won two of their last nine FA Cup games against Premier League teams.

Tottenham usually get beyond this stage as well, only failing to reach the fifth round once in the last six years, and if Conte is seriously chasing silverware then this looks to be his chance.

Watch out for the 90 minute draw here at 3.613/5 as Brighton have drawn 12 of their 22 league games and have drawn their last two cup ties in 90 minutes.

If that's the case, you can back either team to win in extra time at 6.511/2, but preference is for the home side to pinch it with a low scoring win - it's around the 3/1 mark.

Go low on goals

We're guessing a touch on selection, but there's no reason why Harry Kane won't be starting - especially as Spurs failed to bring any back-up in last month - and unsurprisingly he's got a fantastic FA Cup record with 11 goals in his last 11 cup ties.

Kane and Son Heung-min, who could return from injury, are as short as you like to score here, but Steven Bergwijn is a live chance given he's been heavily involved of late, and even makes an impact off the bench.

He's 3.55/2 to score his fourth goal in five, and an attractive 4.03/1 to have two shots on target given he's averaged a shot on target every 38 minutes over his last four appearances.

We shouldn't expect too many goals though with the way this game is likely to go, but for Brighton Leandro Trossard and Neal Maupay are obvious dangers but Alexis Mac Allister is the man in form.

Mac Allister has been firing in shots from all angles of late, with eight shots on target in six games - that makes 2.01/1 on him having just one here an attractive bet.