FA Cup First Round Tips: Six teams for a huge weekend 78/1 accumulator

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Paul Warne's Derby face a tricky tie on Sunday at Crewe

Alan Dudman landed another treble last weekend with an [11/1] multiple win and he's back to preview this weekend's FA Cup opening round...

  • Derby look vulnerable on the road for Sunday

  • Barnet flying in National League and look bankers

  • Alan Dudman has six tips for the FA Cup


Leg 1: Peterborough v Salford City, Saturday 15:00 - Back BTTS

Whether an FA Cup run is high on the list of priorities is the question and Salford present a tricky first round tie, but at east they are at home and Posh are in form with four wins from six and they've not lost since early September.

Salford City have lost all three of their FA Cup ties against League One opponents - all three have been in the first round, and all three have gone to a replay (v Shrewsbury in 2018-19, Burton Albion in 2019-20 and Peterborough last season). They needed two games to get past Salford last year following an opening 0-0, and while they are a short price to do so again, the 4/61.67 on the BTTS looks more of a bet.

In October, the visitors were involved with three games (out of five) that hit the BTTS target and some thrillers that threw up a ton of goals with a 4-2, 2-2 and 3-2.

Peterborough have progressed from their last 13 FA Cup first round ties, since losing to Burton Albion in a replay in 2005-06, so they look quite strong to go through again, but 40/851.47 is short enough in the match betting and Posh at home have a decent xG figure of 1.7.

KEY OPTA STAT: Salford City are looking to reach the FA Cup second round for the fourth time, previously doing so in 2015-16, 2020-21 and 2021-22.

Back BTTS Peterborough v Salford @ 4/61.67

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Leg 2: Notts County v Crawley, Saturday 15:00 - Back Notts County HT/FT

Notts County have bine a fine punting ally this term in League Two and have regularly provided us with a winning bet as they score so many goals. It's 33 now for the season and Macaulay Langstaff is already on 11 from 16, so hopefully he will start this Saturday as Crawley are in a bad trot.

The Red Devils started the season well, but their form is in freefall at the moment and are without a win in five and even lost to a woeful Forest Green last weekend on the road 2-1, and conceding two at shot-shy Rovers is never a good thing.

Crawley have lost their FA Cup first round tie in seven of the last nine seasons, with the exceptions being 2019-20 and 2020-21 and are readily opposed here.

There's some mileage in backing the HT/FT here at a decent price of 7/52.40, especially as the hosts have scored in the first half in nine of their last ten matches.

KEY OPTA STAT: This is the first ever FA Cup meeting between Notts County and Crawley Town - the Magpies have won five of their seven home games against Crawley in all competitions (D1 L1).

Back Notts County HT/FT @ 7/52.40

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AFC Wimbledon v Cheltenham - Saturday 15:00 - Back Wimbledon

Since joining the EFL in the 2011-12 season, AFC Wimbledon have progressed from the FA Cup first round in nine of 12 attempts, including the last three in a row. Doncaster were the last team to eliminate them at this stage back in 2019-20.

The Cup winners from 1988 are a good price with that stat in mind, although I suspect that 23/202.15 is influenced by their home form this term with just one win in seven (three draws).

The Robins were eliminated in the FA Cup first round last season at the hands of non-league Alvechurch. The Robins haven't gone out at this stage in consecutive seasons since 2006-07 (vs Scunthorpe) and 2007-08 (vs Brighton) and have scored just four goals on the road in League One this term.

KEY OPTA STAT: This is the second FA Cup meeting between AFC Wimbledon and Cheltenham Town, with the other coming in the second round in 2021-22, a 4-3 home win for Wimbledon.

Back AFC Wimbledon to win @ 23/202.15

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Leg 4: Leyton Orient v Carlisle, Saturday 15:00 - Back Under 2.5 Goals

Orient's xG and xA figures of 1.24 and 1.12 are fairly lowly and gives us a good entree into backing the Unders for this one, especially as Carlisle are equally unimpressive as they've scored just eight in ten on the road.

Indeed, Carlisle have a poor xG figure too away, with a paltry 0.99 figure.

Leyton Orient have been eliminated in five of their last six FA Cup first round matches, losing 1-0 against Crewe last season. Their only progression in this run was against non-league Ebbsfleet in 2021-22, so that tempers the outright match bet, and with Orient F7 A9 at home, it should be a close one.

KEY OPTA STAT: Carlisle United have progressed from 14 of their last 15 FA Cup first round ties, including the last eight in a row. They last went out at this stage in 2014-15 against Peterborough United.

Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1/21.50

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Leg 5: Curzon Ashton v Barnet, Saturday 15:00 - Back Barnet to win

Barnet have been terrific in the National League this term and are keeping tabs on the league leaders Chesterfield with 42 points playing 44 and while odds-on for Saturday, they deserve to be. They also have progressed from the FA Cup first round in each of their last two campaigns they reached this stage (2020-21 and 2022-23), knocking out fellow non-league side Chelmsford City last season.

They've already won six on the road and Callum Stead is a man in form with a run of five goals in his last six, including a brace recently at Oxford City.

Nicke Kabamba, not to be outdone, has 11, and Dean Brennan's side have the look of a team with goals in them. The only time they've failed to score all season was the 0-0 against Halifax and they do look banker material for this weekend - hence the short price.

KEY OPTA STAT: In the first round onwards, Barnet have progressed from their last five FA Cup ties against non-league sides (three while as a League Two team, two as a National League team). The Bees last went out to such a side in 2004-05 against Bath City.

Back Barnet to win @ 40/851.47

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Leg 6: Crewe v Derby, Sunday 14:45 - Back Crewe

With a few short prices in the Saturday acca options, Crewe can be the booster for any doubles and trebles if you are playing on the Sportsbook, and they look a big price, and one too good to ignore against League One Derby.

Derby have been far from convincing so far, and are in danger of losing touch with the title chasing teams, and they've lost five of their 15 games so far.

Crewe have been excellent this term although were outdone by Stockport recently, and for once, they failed to score at home in that game and they barely mustered a shot on target for 90 minutes - which was most unlike them as they've been flying with thei xG this term.

The Alex have progressed from three of their last four FA Cup first round ties, having only progressed from two of their previous 10 before this, and this is a tie that Derby boss Paul Warne probably didn't want.

KEY OPTA STAT: Derby and Crewe haven't met in any competition since August 2010 in the League Cup first round, with the Railwaymen winning 1-0 thanks to a Shaun Barker own goal.

Back Crewe to win @ 16/54.20

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You can back Alan's six team 78/179.00 acca with one click

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Recommended bets

Back the FA Cup First Round Acca @ 78/179.00

Alan Dudman's P and L 2023-24

Multiples: +28.50pts

Alan Dudman

Alan is a long term member of the Betting.Betfair team and has been a broadcaster and writer for over 20 years.

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