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Round three for Haaland v Varane
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Rodri to stop Fernandes at a 10/34.33 cost
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City to prevail in tight contest
Manchester City v Manchester United
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For the first time ever Manchester City and Manchester United meet in a major final but the significance of that can be distracting when identifying where the game will likely be won and lost.
The rivalry, the 'meaning', that's for the fans. To best forecast how this momentous clash plays out, it helps to park all of the narratives and instead focus on the match-ups that could ultimately determine who becomes the 141st winner of the FA Cup.
Let's begin with the most obvious key battle, one that has already been fought twice-over this season with very different outcomes.
Haaland v Varane
Both players were rested last Sunday, signifying their obvious and immense importance to proceedings this weekend.
The French international would have no doubt wished in hindsight he was rested last October when he endured a nightmare at the Etihad, with Haaland bagging a third consecutive hat-trick on home soil.
With two assists for good measure, as City racked up a comprehensive 6-3 win, the Norwegian ran riot that afternoon and the mistake Varane made - along with his defensive partner Martinez - was to get too up close and personal, engaging in a physical contest that is manna from the Viking gods for the prolific forward. He thrives on conflict.
To add injury to insult, the United stopper limped off after 40 minutes, but by then the damage was done.
Lessons were clearly learned for round two at Old Trafford, with Varane dropping off and affording Haaland space to receive the ball, but only that. The result was a frustrating day for the goal-machine, firing blanks as United ran out 2-1 winners.
Still, how can we go against a striker who has scored 52 times this campaign, a goal every 76 minutes. He will adapt. He will find a way.
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Bruno Fernandes v Rodri
It would be a travesty if either of these players miss out in the imminent PFA Team of the Year announcement.
Fernandes has played more minutes than anyone across Europe's top five leagues and has been productive throughout, accruing a Premier League high of 119 key passes and 263 progressive passes. No player has matched him for shot-creating actions (219), a stat that best illustrates his integral value to Ten Hag's attacking mandate.
The Portuguese schemer's 16 direct goal involvements includes a highly controversial equalizer vs City and pertinently he has scored in his last two outings coming into this game.
If the 28-year-old wins his duel against Rodri then United have every chance of securing a second domestic trophy this term though of course that's a lot easier said, than done.
That's because Rodri is everything to this City creation, its sun, moon, and stars.
The Spanish midfielder has averaged just shy of a pass a minute across 2022/23 with a surprisingly high number of them in the attacking third, but by some distance his biggest attribute lies in his negating of danger, mopping up ahead of a back three and doing so better than anyone else in the top-flight.
301 recoveries this past year is testament to that while he is also not adverse to a tactical foul or three.
Rashford v Bernardo Silva
This pair won't inhabit the same areas very often but both have come to the fore so often in previous derbies.
Silva boasts eight direct goal involvements in 12 meetings with the Reds and maybe it's a coincidence, but probably not, that the only season that saw him benched for both encounters, City failed to win either.
Additionally - and this matters - he is a player who takes a supporter's mentality into the biggest games. He loves it. He gets it.
Rashford meanwhile has scored four times in his fixture, including two match-winners and that's relevant because only Harry Kane has notched more match-winners this season.
He has the pace to hurt City on the counter and United are the only top-flight club this term to reach double figures for goals scored via counters.
Final v Derby
How the occasion itself fails to synch up with previous Manchester dust-ups is intriguing. In fact, the more you look at it, more contradictions become apparent.
Twenty-one of the last 30 FA Cup finals have been won to nil yet the last three derbies saw both teams scoring. Even one-sided affairs usually offer up a consolation.
Nineteen of the last 30 goals scored in finals were converted after the break. But four of the last five derbies have seen a goal scored inside the opening ten minutes.
The last 25 FA Cup finals produced 2.2 goals per game. The last 25 derbies produced 2.8.
In only three of the last 20 finals has an opponent won by more than a single goal. In derbies that figure rises three-fold.
Something naturally has to give when it comes to these discrepancies and given the high stakes, and the respective good form of both sides, it could well be the latter one.